Wall St., Main St. Bearish On Gold Prices
This is only the third time all year that voters in both surveys were bearish, including the second time in less than a month.
Eighteen market professionals took part in the survey. There were nine votes, or 50%, calling for gold prices to fall. There were six votes, or 33%, calling for gold to rise, while three voters, or 17%, look for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 868 voters responded in an online Main Street survey. A total of 446 respondents, or 51%, predicted that gold prices would be lower in a week. Another 319 voters, or 37%, said gold will rise, while 103, or 12%, see a sideways market.
For the trading week now winding down, 63% of Wall Street was bearish while the biggest bloc of Main Street voters (44%) was bullish. Around 11 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was down 1% for the week so far to $1,228.70 an ounce.
“I remain bearish,” said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options. He noted that the market bounced Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve rate hikes, but Grady characterized this as a short-covering rally rather than a change in the fundamental picture for the market.
“A lot of people are looking for bottoms,” Grady said. “I look at it differently – why? I don’t see a [fundamental] reason for a rally at this point.”
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, looks for the muscular U.S. dollar to continue exerting pressure on gold.
“Although we could reach a seasonal bottom in the coming weeks, gold is not oversold, and I don’t think we are washed out yet,” he said. “I still think we could retest $1,200 or even dip under it before the current sell-off is over.”
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, also sees more gold weakness.
“The technicals look weak,” Haberkorn said, adding that the ongoing trade tariff saga may mean more losses for the precious metal. “It’s helping the dollar, which puts pressure on gold.”
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, looks for a retest of Thursday’s low or maybe even $1,200.
“If you look at the interest-rate differentials, rest of the world is going one way and we [the U.S.] are going the other,” he said. This tends to support the dollar, thereby hurting gold. “It feels to me like people are selling rallies.”
George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, sees the potential for a short-covering rally, although he added that a Comex options expiration next week could add volatility to the market. Short covering is when traders buy to offset or cover short (bearish) positions.
Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial, looks for a consolidation bounce higher in the near term. Meanwhile, ForexLive managing director Adam Button suggested gold could be helped by a pause in the U.S. dollar.
“Trump isn’t going to stop the Federal Reserve from hiking rates, but his talk about keeping rates low has made U.S. dollar bulls think twice, and that should give gold bulls a reason to buy,” Button said.
Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, is bullish on gold in the near term, commenting that market reaction to Trump’s remarks about monetary policy and currency manipulation show just how nervous markets are. Weinberg added in an environment of rising volatility, gold remains the ultimate safe haven.