Is A Monster Gold Rally Just Around The Corner? Cramer’s Charts Show Bottoms Are In
(Kitco News) - With a floor in gold prices more or less set just above the $1,200 an ounce level, a monster rally could be on the horizon, according to Mad Money’s Jim Cramer.
The large speculators in the gold space are great markers of sentiment and direction, CNBC’s Cramer said on Tuesday.
And the latest weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders Report, which shows how speculators are positioned, reveals that the large players have reduced their gold futures to the lowest level in years.
“This chart shows you that the big-money speculators are pretty darned negative,” Cramer said. “And I think perhaps too negative on the yellow metal, which could be tinder for a big rally.”
Indeed, the last time the CFTC numbers were this low — December 2015 — gold kicked off “a monster rally,” Cramer pointed out.
“So this pervasive negativity is one reason why Garner [technician Carley Garner, the co-founder of DeCarley Trading] thinks that a bottom in the precious metal might be imminent.”
Garner believes that if the $1,200 floor in gold holds then the precious metal could begin to climb back to $1,350.
“No one's thinking this, and I wouldn't be surprised if she turns out to be dead right,” the host of Mad Money added.
Cramer suggested buying gold to diversify any portfolio as the yellow metal is a great hedge against many market risks out there.
“Let me give you the bottom line here: for those of you who are genuinely worried about inflation and trade policy and rising rates, and let's throw in the budget deficit, you don't need to dump your stocks,” Cramer said. “Instead, though, how about buying some gold as an insurance against economic chaos, perhaps via the GLD, the ETF that owns gold so you don't have to.”
TRADER TALK: All hope is not lost. Like all markets, the strong hands will change and #gold will rise again, but until then the only logical place to be is short or neutral and observing - @Bubba_Trading https://t.co/32Re6ymHhv pic.twitter.com/FEtfBWKplO— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) July 31, 2018
Logically, the yellow metal should be doing much better than its current $1,231 an ounce level.
“The price of gold still hasn't really reacted to the current trade war, or the exploding budget deficit — which a lot of you care about tremendously, of course — or even the recent uptick in inflation,” he continued. “With inflation on the rise and the government borrowing insanely high, you'd expect precious metals to become more popular on the Wall Street fashion show.”
This is why Cramer describes this time as "the single best time of year to bet on gold.”
So far, gold has had a very tough year and an especially brutal summer, with prices plunging 2.3% in the last 30 days and 9% in the last six months. December Comex gold futures were last seen trading at $1,230.70, down 0.24% on the day.