Wall St., Main St. Look For Gold Upside To Continue
(Kitco News) - Wall Street and Main Street look for gold to maintain its upward momentum next week, with the metal currently headed for its fourth straight weekly gain, based on the Kitco News gold survey.
Eighteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Twelve respondents, or 67%, predicted higher prices by next Friday. Just one respondent, or 6%, called for lower, while five participants, or 28%, looked for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 444 people responded to an online Main Street poll. A total of 291 respondents, or 66%, called for gold to rise. Another 106, or 24%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 47 voters, or 11%, see a sideways market. The overall response was the lowest since Kitco News began the online survey more than three years ago.
For the trading week now winding down, 79% of Wall Street voters and 60% of those on Main Street were bullish. Just before 11 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was 0.9% higher for the week so far at $1,240 an ounce.
“I am bullish for next week,” said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, commenting that the metal broke above the 100-day moving average around $1,231 this week. “I am looking to test the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $1,253.10.
“We are starting to see some new longs entering the market at these levels as well. Today's preliminary open interest, based on yesterday's trading, is up 19,000. I think a settlement above $1,253 should bring in a new wave of longs.”
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, also looks for further gains.
“Gold is getting boosted by risk aversion and outright fear buying,” Flynn said. “With global stock markets under extreme pressure, gold is being used as risk aversion. Even as the dollar gains strength, gold is breaking out, which usually bodes well for gold prices going forward.”
George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, also looks for higher prices, saying “stock volatility is a wakeup call for asset allocators.”
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, sees upside potential in gold amid potential headwinds for equities, such as upcoming U.S. midterm elections. He suggested that in the not-too-distant future, gold has a chance to hit a trendline that currently passes near $1,265 and a 50% Fibonacci retracement around $1,268. He added that the net-short position of money managers means potential for short covering as these traders buy to unwind those bearish bets.
Meanwhile, Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, looks for gold to pull back, given the rise in the U.S. dollar. Still, he pointed out that gold has held up better than dollar movement would suggest.
“This is a positive sign for medium/longer term, but suggests a pullback in immediate term,” Day said. “All this is subject to some surprise, with the risks all on the upside for gold.”
Philip Streible, senior market strategist with RJO Futures, said gold’s ability to shake off a slightly higher-than-forecast 3.5% reading in U.S. third-quarter gross-domestic-product growth shows that “this buildup in prices is built on a strong foundation. The next upside target is $1,250, while caution would be justified if we see a break below $1,220.”
Ken Morrison, editor of the newsletter Morrison on the Markets, suggested gold could make another blip upward but spend most of the next week sideways.
“Participation in gold has certainly improved along with a more balanced sentiment as evidenced by the large jump in open interest Thursday to 495,000 contracts, the largest open interest since July,” Morrison said.
“Despite the dollar index returning to the August high, gold managed to rally and test overhead resistance at $1,240. I won't be surprised if gold makes a run toward $1,245 in the week ahead, but I expect most of the trade will remain range-bound $1,230-$1,240 in the near term. Closing below $1,230 might embolden potential short sellers.”
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he is neutral on gold for next week although he’s bullish over the next month.
“I just think that having moved up quite a bit already, gold may need a week to digest its recent gains,” he said. “Plus, the U.S. dollar has been showing signs of life off the U.S. GDP report, which could hinder the short-term upside for gold.”