U.S. Midterms Keeping Gold Investors On Their Toes
(Kitco News) - Wall Street looks for gold prices to rise next week, although many in the weekly Kitco News gold survey also described themselves as neutral at the moment due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday.
Main Street remained bullish.
The Republicans are seen maintaining control of the U.S. Senate, but news reports suggest Democrats have a chance to take control of the House of Representatives. If so, that would provide a check on efforts by President Donald Trump to push through his agenda and could mean gridlock in Congress.
Fifteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Eight respondents, or 53%, predicted higher prices by next Friday. Two respondents, or 13%, called for lower, while five participants, or 33%, looked for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 447 people responded to an online Main Street poll. A total of 255 respondents, or 57%, called for gold to rise. Another 127, or 28%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 65 voters, or 15%, see a sideways market.
For the trading week now winding down, roughly two-thirds of Wall Street and Main Street voters were bullish. As of 11:11 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was 0.2% lower for the week so far at $1,233.20 an ounce.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, is among those who are expecting gold to rise.
“Risk-on is back with the possibility of a Trump-China trade deal and a top in the dollar,” Flynn said. “The dollar has shown some reluctance to go higher as rate increases for December are priced in by least 70%.”
Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial, said that he is “looking for a pop higher. Crude oil’s massive sell-off may very well snap back on a geopolitical event, adding a slight lift to gold prices throughout the month of November.”
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, looks for gold to rise, doubting that many traders would want to be aggressively bearish ahead of U.S. midterm elections. Should Democrats wrest at least one chamber of Congress away from the Republicans, the expectation for a stalemate in Congress could boost gold prices, Lusk explained.
However, he added, “it could already be priced in somewhat.”
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, looks for gold to move lower, citing a stabilizing equity market and likelihood that the Federal Reserve keeps tightening monetary policy.
“Unless the Fed changes its tune, gold will remain under pressure with a hawkish Fed,” Haberkorn said.
A number of voters pointed to the congressional elections as a factor behind their neutral votes.
“So much depends on the midterm election results in the U.S.,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management. “If Republicans hold House, probably good for the dollar and negative for gold in near term. For now, I'll say unchanged.”
Peter Hug, global trading director with Kitco Metals, also said the near-term direction of gold may hinge on midterm elections in the U.S.
“If Republicans maintain a majority, I think gold may soften after Tuesday,” Hug said. “If Democrats take the majority, I see gold higher.”
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, is neutral based on the charts.
“Gold seems to be stuck in the $1,213 to $1,246 range,” Grady said. “I would not turn bullish until we break the 38% retracement of $1,253.”