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Commerzbank: Gold Gives Up Most Of Early 1Q Gains

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Gold finished the first quarter with only a modest gain after giving up most of its early-year strength. Spot metal was trading at $1,293 an ounce as of 8:32 a.m. EDT Monday, up $1 for the day and up modestly from $1,282.35 as of the end of 2018, as the market backed down from the $1,346.45 peak in February. “By the end of the quarter, nothing remained of its strong start to the year; gold had risen sharply until well into February,” Commerzbank says. “Gold in euros fared somewhat better and gained by 3% in the last quarter thanks to the firm U.S. dollar and weaker euro. Gold ETFs [exchange-traded funds] stabilized in March after seeing marked outflows in February, and ended the quarter with holdings that were up by just short of 38 tonnes. By contrast, U.S. coin sales were still subdued, though at 90,000 ounces they were a third higher in the first quarter than in the same period last year.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

TDS Covers Short Position In Palladium With Profit

Monday April 1, 2019 08:53

TD Securities reports taking profits on a short, or bearish, position in palladium. The bank says it covered a short in the June palladium contract at $1,363 for a 5% profit. “While we still believe that palladium prices could continue to correct as traders acknowledge the sharp deterioration in the metal's demand outlook following the bubblicious rally, the velocity of the decline in prices suggests that some caution may be warranted,” TDS says. “In other words, it's time to take our money and run for the exit, particularly should the precious-metals complex continue to rally on poor U.S. data and given the PMI beats over the weekend.” June palladium fell as far as $1,303.30 an ounce on Thursday after peaking at $1,576.90 a week before. As of 8:30 a.m. EDT, the contract was $23.90 higher so far Monday to $1,365.70 an ounce.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 

BBH: Markets Anticipating FOMC Rate Cuts

Monday April 1, 2019 08:53

Markets are still pricing in Federal Open Market Committee rate cuts, says Brown Brothers Harriman. “The Fed funds futures strip shows a rate cut fully priced in by January 2020 and another cut fully priced in by December 2020,” BBH says. “No one really expects a move at the May 1 FOMC meeting.  However, Bloomberg’s WIRP model suggests a nearly 20% chance of a cut at the June 19 meeting.  This seems to overstate the case.”

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