Gold Prices Solidly Up. The Worm Has Turned
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are posting good gains and are near last week’s six-year high of $1,415.40 in August futures. Safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical events is keeping gold prices on the rise. Also, a slumping U.S. dollar index that hit a three-month low today is also working in favor of the precious metals markets. Trader psychology in the gold and silver markets appears to have shifted to a “buy the dips” mentality from the “sell the rallies” attitude that had been in place since last winter. August gold futures were last up $11.50 an ounce at 1,411.60. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.04 at $15.33 an ounce.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. This is likely to be a more important trading week, amid big events upcoming.
The U.S.-Iran confrontation in the Persian Gulf region continues to simmer on the front burner of the marketplace. News over the weekend surfaced that the U.S. last week employed a cyber-attack on Iran, specifically its ability to track big ships at sea, and to launch missiles. Also, President Trump says there will be “major” new sanctions put in Iran this week. This situation is likely to hang around the marketplace for a while, which is bullish for the safe-haven metals.
U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet in Japan at the G20 meetings late this week and discuss their ongoing trade war. The outcome of that meeting could have huge implications for markets, especially if an agreement is reached to end the trade war.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading just below $58.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is weaker and hit a three-month low overnight.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
Technically, the gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $1,450.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing August futures prices below solid technical support at $1,361.50. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,415.40 and then at $1,425.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,403.60 and then at $1,400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5
July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.625. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $15.555 and then at $15.73. Next support is seen at $15.25 and then at $15.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.