After a summer lull Wall Street gold bears are back, Main Street remains bullish
(Kitco News) - After nearly going extinct this summer, the Wall Street gold bears are surging back into the marketplace, according to the latest Kitco News weekly gold survey.
Meanwhile, Main Street remains significantly optimistic on the yellow metal as participation in Kitco’s online survey hit a new one-year high.
The shift in sentiment on Wall Street comes as the gold market looks to see its first negative weekly close in five weeks. Although many analyst are not looking to actively short the market, they do see profit taking weighing on sentiment after prices hit a fresh six-year higher earlier in the week.
“The economic situation doesn’t look as dire as it once did so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit taking in the market,” said Eugene Weinberg, head of commodity strategy at Commerzbank. “But even if prices do fall the long-term uptrend remains intact.”
This week, 15 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. In a statistical tie, a total of 6 voters, or 40%, called for gold to be both higher and lower next week. The results showed that 3 participants, or 19%, anticipated neutral price action in the near-term.
Meanwhile, 1,203 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 762 voters, or 63%, called for gold to rise. Another 258, or 21%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 183 voters, or 15%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, Main Street and Wall Street were both bullish on prices for the week now winding down. As 12:27 p.m. EDT, Comex December gold futures were trading at $1,533 an ounce down 0.24% from the previous week.
Wall Street and Main Street both have an 18-14 winning record for the year to date, meaning respondents have been right 56% of the time.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market analyst at LaSalle Futures Group, said that while he will take some gold profits off the table in the current market environment, he will still maintain a core position as he expects prices to continue to push higher.
He added that he remains extremely bullish on gold in the near-term as the market holds above its 10-day moving average. He explained that gold has held up very well as equities have managed to push higher this past week.
“Equities remain fairly resilient and could take some momentum away from gold but I don’t think you can ignore the future outlook,” he said. “Looking ahead, there is still a lot of uncertainty out there.”
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset, has been a consistent bear in the marketplace the last few weeks, saying that gold is overdue for a correction. However, he also reiterated that a correction next week does not change his long-term very bullish outlook.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that he is neutral on gold, he added that it would not be a surprise to see gold slide lower in the near-term as investor sentiment has improved over this past week. However, he added that sentiment remains fairly fragile and could sour very quickly.
“It’s been a week without any major trade news so we are overdue for some of that uncertainty,” he said. “I don’t really want to chase the market at the current price, but I’m not going to short it anytime soon. As long as yields stay low gold will continue to attract investment capital.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging, said that he also doesn’t want to chase the market at current levels.
He added that he likes the idea of taking profits and looks to reenter on dips. He added that $1,480 will be the key level to watch and see if it attracts new buying interest.
Lusk added that although there is a lot of noise in the marketplace, further gains in equity markets will create new headwinds for gold in the near-term.
“We have hit our year-end targets in gold so I would take some profits off the table,” he said. “Long-term I think you still have to be bullish on gold because central banks are still going to devalue their currencies.”