Don't go quietly into that good night: Wall Street, Main Street bullish on gold prices
(Kitco News) - Gold bulls are keeping the drive alive as both Wall Street analysts and Main Street investors remain firmly bullish on the yellow metal as the price has managed to regain the $1,500 level heading into the weekend, according to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey.
For many analysts, gold’s ability to recoup a 2% loss at the start of the week and regain what became a critical psychological level is a sign of strong resilience in the marketplace. Many analysts have noted that growing recession fears and financial market uncertainty continue to support gold prices in the near term.
“Everywhere investors look there is another worry,” said George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management. “The U.S. dollar remains the biggest headwind for gold, but this uncertainty should continue to support prices around $1,500.”
This week, 17 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Twelve analysts or 71% said they see higher prices next week. Another two, or 18%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 2 voters, or 12%, saw a sideways market or else were neutral.
Meanwhile, 679 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 446 voters, or 65%, called for gold to rise. Another 145, or 21%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 88 voters, or 13%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, Wall Street analysts proved the most accurate as the majority of participants were neutral on gold for this current week. As of 11:47 a.m. EST, December gold futures last traded at $1,509.50 an ounce, up 0.21% from the previous week.
Wall Streets’ record is now 19-16 year to date, meaning respondents have been right 54% of the time. Meanwhile, Main Street’s record fell to 18-17, meaning this group has been right 51% so far this year.
Looking ahead, although a healthy jobs report is taking some momentum away from gold prices Friday, many analysts still expect to see higher prices as the latest employment data has not shifted expectations for another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month.
Some analysts have noted that jobs data is a lagging indicator and the disappointing ISM data released Tuesday and Thursday paint a picture of slowing economic growth in the U.S.
“I don’t think the employment data was a game changer,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at City Index. “The Federal Reserve is still going to cut rates this month and that will weaken the U.S. dollar and push gold prices higher.”
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a nearly 80% chance of a rate cut on Oct. 30.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA, said that he expects gold prices to trade nervously between support at $1,485 and resistance at $1,520; however, he added that sentiment is still more bullish and he likes buying dips rather than selling rallies.
“Financial market uncertainty around the world is not going away anytime soon and because of that more investors are looking for gold to break on the upside,” he said.
Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said that he sees the path of least resistance is higher.
“As long as concerns over slowing global growth, political risk, trade uncertainty and Brexit drama among many other geopolitical risk factors stimulate risk aversion, Gold bulls will remain in the driving seat,” he said.
But not all analysts are optimistic on gold, Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh trading, said that he sees gold prices pushing lower as the $1,520 level is proving to be a strong resistance barrier.
He added that he doesn’t see a lot of new information coming into the marketplace that will drive prices higher.
“I think right now there are way too many longs in the marketplace and I think we could see those investors start to leave if the market can’t make new highs,” he said. “We really need new information to push this market higher but I don’t see where that will come from.”
Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, also said that it looks like gold needs some fresh information as he sees prices trading back around $1,500.
“Gold appears to be pausing to assess its next direction, looking at an economic outlook that is not so dire as August, but with more impetus for Federal Reserve rate cuts given weakness in key areas,” he said. “I believe Comex gold will retreat to the key $1,500-level next week but avoid a retest of Tuesday's low. Any adverse change in this fragile political and geo-political environment could quickly return safe-haven demand and reignite a gold rally.”