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Brexit’s extension past October 31 deadline is still the most likely scenario — Bannockburn Global Forex

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Even with the Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal on the table, the most likely outcome is an extension of the October 31 Brexit deadline, according to Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It is not clear Prime Minister Johnson will succeed in securing Parliament's approval on a deal that seems likely to be struck with the EU. Although the path is not clear, we do not see how an extension past the end of the month can be avoided. PredictIt.Org shows only about a 20% chance that the October 31 deadline is respected,” writes Chandler. The focus now is on the Democrat Unionist Party from Northern Ireland and whether or not Johnson can get enough support in the UK Parliament. “A deal with the EU has been achieved. Northern Ireland will be allowed to scrap the border arrangement four years after the transition period, with a two-year notice of a new system. However, the Democrat Unionist Party from Northern Ireland, whose support some Tory MPs have said is essential for their support, has balked. The DUP had previously blocked efforts to put a hard border (i.e., customs check) between it and the rest of the UK,” adds Chandler.

By Anna Golubova of Kitco News; agolubova@kitco.com

 

‘Major rub’ to Brexit deal makes passing it ‘unlikely’: TD Securities

Thursday October 17, 2019 10:06

A “major rub” to the possible Brexit deal negotiated by Prime Minister Boris Johnson with the EU is the actual likelihood of it being passed by the UK Parliament, says TD Securities global head of FX strategy Mark McCormick. “Brexit news has dominated headlines, as the UK/EU have reached a deal … Still, we note that there's a major rub to this deal, as it needs to pass the UK parliament Saturday. That's unlikely and the result of a failed agreement brings us back to the prospects of a general election later this year,” McCormick writes. However, a major positive development throughout this process has been “the reduction of no-deal tail risk,” he adds.

By Anna Golubova of Kitco News; agolubova@kitco.com

 

‘Palladium has the most bullish technical picture’ — TD Securities

Thursday October 17, 2019 10:04

Palladium’s technical position is the most bullish one, according to TD Securities. “On a technical basis, the TD ChartVision signal, which aggregates 75 different technical analysis signals into a single tradeable signal, suggests that palladium has the most bullish technical picture of our cross-asset basket, with 98% of momentum signals currently long,” strategists at TD Securities write. Long positions in palladium are helping the metal, the strategists add. “It's worth highlighting while palladium bulls still hold dry-powder by the barrel, the metal is benefiting from an increasing breadth of traders positioning long, while the position held per trader remains low, suggesting a level of cautiousness that implies a lower risk of a rush to the exit.”

By Anna Golubova of Kitco News; agolubova@kitco.com

 

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