Gold prices pause, but bigger move right on the horizon
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly down in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Buyers are being squelched by firmer global equity markets this week, including the U.S. stock indexes trading very close to their yearly and all-time highs. The gold and silver markets are in need of a dose of bullish news as the geopolitical front has quieted down recently. December gold futures were last down $1.50 an ounce at 1,486.70. December Comex silver prices were last down $0.132 at $17.475 an ounce.
The recent “collapse in volatility” in the gold market—whereby price action for the past three or four trading sessions has been quieter (smaller daily trading ranges as seen on the daily bar chart)--indicates a significantly bigger price move is very likely to occur at some point soon and quite possibly yet this week.
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes were narrowly mixed at midday. A heavy slate of U.S. corporate earnings reports this week is the focus of U.S. stock market traders, amid no fresh geopolitical flare-ups at present.
Trader and investor attitudes worldwide remain generally upbeat early this week and that’s bearish for the precious metals. The U.S.-China trade negotiations appear to be progressing. President Trump said Monday afternoon the talks are “coming along very well,” suggesting a trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies could be signed as early as next month.
The Brexit situation remains in limbo this week, after a hoped-for weekend deal between the U.K. and the European Union fell through. The British Parliament is moving to again delay a vote to seal the Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants a resolution to the matter sooner. The uncertainty of the matter is prompting some risk aversion from European traders.
European Union officials have warned five countries about the EU budget constricts not being met, which is also causing some concern among European market watchers.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $53.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up on a mild corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that drove the index to a nine-week low on Monday.
Technically, December gold futures prices were near mid-range at midday today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a seven-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The recent “collapse in volatility” in this market makes me suspect a bigger price move is right on the horizon. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,525.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,465.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,492.10 and then at $1,500.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,484.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,478.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
December silver futures prices were nearer the session low at midday today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a seven-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $17.68 and then at this week’s high of $17.895. Next support is seen at $17.33 and then at last week’s low of $17.18. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 125 points at 263.40 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 270.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 248.20 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 266.00 cents and then at 270.00 cents. First support is seen at 262.50 cents and then at 260.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.