Wall St. Mixed; Main St. Bullish
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(Kitco News) - Wall Street is mixed on where gold will head next week in the aftermath of a reported U.S.-China trade deal, while Main Street is bullish, according to the weekly Kitco News gold survey.
Sixteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. There were six votes each, or 38%, for both higher and lower prices. Another four voters, or 25%, were neutral or called for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 704 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll. A total of 456 voters, or 65%, looked for gold to rise in the next week. Another 144, or 20%, said lower, while 104, or 15%, were neutral.
For the trading week now winding down, 44% of Wall Street voters said they were bearish on gold for the current week, while 61% of Main Street voters were bullish. Around 11 a.m. EST, Comex February gold was up by 0.6% for the week so far to $1,474.20 an ounce.
Much of the market focus the last two days has been on U.S.-China trade talks. The U.S. administration announced Thursday that a deal has been reached, and China on Friday confirmed significant progress. If so, that presumably hurts gold since increased trade means improved economic prospects, analysts said.
Still, analysts wondered whether the two countries have made lasting progress or whether any deal could still unravel.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, looks for gold to gain traction again on his doubts that trade issues with China are really resolved. The “devil is in the details,” he said.
“There will be some kind of [trade] deal, but it will be a letdown,” Nedoss said.
Further, Nedoss cited a pullback in the U.S. dollar index. A weaker U.S. currency typically helps gold.
George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, also called for higher gold prices.
“Nimble traders [will] sell [any] large rally and buy large dips as we continue range-bound [from] $1,450-$1,500 with upward bias in the long run,” said Gero in an email.
John Weyer, co-director of commercial hedging for Walsh Trading, looks for the apparent breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks to help most commodities but work against gold. Assuming there is a risk-on mentality in other markets, “we won’t see the flight to quality,” Weyer said.
However, Weyer added, any presidential tweet or headline suggesting a stumble in the trade talks is likely to prompt a recovery in gold.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, described himself as “moderately bearish” on gold for next week.
“Right now, a lot of the news out there is bullish, the VIX [fear index] is falling and we may not need more stimulus from central banks next year if the global economy rebounds,” he said. “The one thing that may help gold is that USD [the U.S. dollar] is a bit soft with EUR and GBP [euro and British pound] soaring today, and a stronger world economy could push up inflation. Altogether, the outlook for gold looks flat to slightly lower unless U.S.-China talks go off the rails.”
Adrian Day, Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, looks for gold to be unchanged next week, although he is bullish for down the road.
“The landslide victory by Boris Johnson in Britain makes it more likely that some form of Brexit—however imperfect—will actually get done, removing a great uncertainty from the EU as well as Britain,” Day said. “A softening on tariffs is another drag on gold. Next year, however, it will become clear early on that monetary policy remains very soft and we are likely to see more QE [quantitative easing] and lower rates, which will set gold ablaze.”
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS, said he looks for gold to start moving sideways as trading starts to wind down ahead of year-end.