Gold miners to be earning stars in 2020 - The High-Tech Strategist
(Kitco News) - The mining sector’s four-quarter earnings season has kicked off, and one market analyst is expecting positive earnings at the end of 2019 to continue through 2020.
In his latest market report, Fred Hickey, creator of the High-Tech Strategist, said that there is no limit to the rally in mining stocks as the bull market in gold and silver is still relatively young. Hickey noted that because of higher gold and silver prices, miners are seeing their best margins since the third quarter of 2011.
“In 2020, the miners should be earnings momentum stars. Their stock charts look terrific too – and in this ‘momentum’ market, the miners’ stocks certainly have to be on the radar of most momentum investors. They are poised to continue to outperform,” Hickey said in his report.
Hickey’s bullish outlook for precious metals and miners comes as he sees cracks forming in financial markets. He added that the sentiment in the marketplace as investors celebrate the longest bull market in history reminds him of the heydays of 1999.
“They seem to have no idea that most of their good fortune is the result of central-bank money printing – which ultimately will prove disastrous – as it always does,” he said. “Investors have no sense we’re in another stock bubble -- as most metrics show….”
In the current market environment, Hickey said that the best way to counter central-bank loose monetary policy is to be heavily long in precious metal and miners.
“I consider them to effectively be an alternative way to short the overall stock market because they typically do well when the stock market slumps and should also outperform in a monetary debasement period,” he said. “Stocks are historically overvalued and are at high risk of a major downturn, especially if the Fed tries again to pull its foot off the QE [quantitative-easing] money-printing accelerator.”
Hickey noted that the biggest positions in his portfolio are in precious-metals miners. He also noted that he is completely out of the tech sector.
“I’m tempted to throw on a minor amount of put options against some of the wildest stocks (Tesla, and Apple, for example) – just in case the Fed attempts to reduce some of the liquidity it was providing the financial system at year end,” he noted.
Hickey also said that that it is “unwise” for investors to hold too much cash as central-bank monetary policy will debase currencies.
“I believe it has been the best managed of all the major gold miners,” he said.
Other miners in his portfolio include, in no particular order, Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE: NEM), Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI, TSX: AGI), Kirkland Lake (NYSE: KL, TSX: KL), Barrick (NYSE: GOLD) NovaGold Resources (NYSE: NG, TSX: NG) and Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS, TSX: PAAS).