Gold, silver prices pull back from overnight gains
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are trading near steady in early U.S. dealings Wednesday and have lost moderate overnight gains. The silver market is on fire this week and overnight pushed to a nearly three-month high above $18.00. As has been the case in recent weeks, gold and silver prices are holding their own at the same time the U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher. June gold futures were last up $1.80 an ounce at $1,747.50. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.014 at $17.925 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor enthusiasm is just a bit muted at mid-week after the initial optimism regarding a successful phase-one Covid-19 vaccine test performed very well. The majority of medical experts still believe any proven vaccine is at least one-year away.
Despite continued dour economic data being released from the major world economies, and reports that the pandemic in Brazil is careening out of control, world stock markets are performing well. It’s likely a case of traders/investors having “pandemic-fatigue” and are in denial of what is occurring and will continue to occur in the coming months, or they were hit with the Covid-19 shock so hard that within a period of just a few weeks they factored into market prices a worst-case scenario, and now the markets are recovering because such a scenario is not playing out—at least not yet. Maybe some of both.
The German government on Wednesday auctioned its 10-year bond (bund) and it fetched an average yield of -0.47%. So, for the next 10 years investors that bought the bunds were willing to accept negative returns. Their logic must be that economic times will get even worse in the coming years and that price deflation will become problematic. The bund investors’ logic comes at a time when the world’s central banks have flooded their financial systems with record amounts of liquidity in an attempt to rescue their floundering economies. Veteran market participants have heard the saying that bond traders are the smartest traders in the world. However, this veteran market watcher will take the other side of the deflation trade that bund buyers are presently making. Economics 101 has historically taught that increased money supply and velocity create price inflation, not deflation.
The important outside markets see Nymex crude oil futures higher early today and trading around $32.15 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker again early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around 0.69%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the FOMC minutes from the last meeting.
Technically, the gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at the April high of $1,788.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,666.20. First resistance is seen at $1,764.20 and then at this week’s high of $1,775.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,727.20 and then at $1,716.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5
July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage with the recent big gains. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $19.07 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $18.155 and then at $18.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $17.755 and then at $17.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.