Gold, silver prices see normal corrective pullbacks
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are trading lower in early U.S. dealings Thursday, on routine downside corrections following recent gains. Once again, it appears the two metals are tracking the U.S. stock indexes, which are lower ahead of the New York opening. June gold futures were last down $13.30 an ounce at $1,739.40. July Comex silver prices were last down $0.221 at $17.81 an ounce.
Global stock markets were also mostly lower in overnight trading. Attitudes are still generally upbeat late this week as governments continue to reopen businesses that had been shuttered for weeks. Some sporting events have been scheduled to resume in the coming weeks and there are rising hopes autumn sports can be played.
Also supporting more positive trader and investor sentiment is the surprising rally in crude oil prices that sees Nymex crude oil trading above $34.00 a barrel Thursday morning. The strong rally in the oil market has caught most oil market watchers by surprise, given significantly reduced demand and still-burdensome global supplies. Just a few weeks ago Nymex May crude oil futures traded as low as -$40 a barrel just before the contract expired.
Global economic data for May is starting to improve from the dire numbers seen in April. The IHS Markit composite purchasing managers index (PMI) for May in the Euro zone rose to 30.5 in May from 13.6 in April. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction. The U.K.’s PMI for the same period came in at 28.9 from 13.8. Japan’s PMI for the same period was 27.4 versus 25.8. Australia’s composite May PMI was 36.4 versus 21.7 in April.
China has begun its most important political event of the year, the National People’s Congress, after a delay because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The meetings signal what the government is calling its victory over the outbreak that began late last year, and will outline key economic and social goals for the year. U.S.-China relations have soured the past several weeks, amid the pandemic that the U.S. is blaming on China. President Trump tweeted late Wednesday that China’s “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe is a disgrace.” The U.S. Senate on Wednesday moved to ban Chinese companies from trading on U.S. stock exchanges.
The other important outside markets see the U.S. dollar index firmer early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around 0.67%. Gold prices are lower on a normal downside correction from recent good gains.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, expected to show claims of 2.4 million, which is a decline from recent weeks. Also due out is the Philadelphia Fed business survey, PMI indexes, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators.
Technically, the gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at the April high of $1,788.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,666.20. First resistance is seen at $1,764.20 and then at this week’s high of $1,775.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,727.20 and then at $1,716.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5
July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage with the recent big gains. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $19.07 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.50. First resistance is seen at $18.00 and then at this week’s high of $18.165. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $17.535 and then at $17.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.