Gold price "coiling" suggests bigger move coming soon
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading Monday. Gains in the metals are occurring despite better risk appetite in the marketplace to start the trading week. Importantly, recent sideways and choppy price action in gold has produced a bullish coiling pattern on the daily bar chart, suggesting the market is storing up energy for a bigger price move coming soon (possibly this week), and odds favor that price move being on the upside. October gold futures were last up $3.70 at $1,943.20 and December Comex silver was last up $0.163 at $27.02 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk sentiment is upbeat to start the trading week. There were two big company deals announced over the weekend: Softbank plans to sell chipmaker ARM to Nvidia for more than $40 billion, and Gilead Sciences plans to acquire Immunomedics for $21 billion. Meantime, AstraZeneca said it has resumed its phase-three trial on a Covid-19 vaccine after being suspended last week. Pfizer also announced its vaccine could be distributed before year-end if all goes well with its trials.
Major central bank meetings are in the spotlight this week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have monetary policy meetings this week. The Fed’s FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized following its shift to an easing of its inflation constricts. The question remains how the FOMC puts its new policy into action.
Said an FXTM analyst in an email dispatch Monday: “From what we know now, the Fed is set up to keep interest rates near zero for a long time, possibly for several years. Given the new framework, any spike in inflation won’t translate into immediate rate hikes as the Fed wants to compensate for the lost years when they have failed to hit the target. The dot plot will be the key guide for investors and traders alike. If inflation projections remain at 2% or below for the foreseeable future, this will solidify market expectations for a low rate environment for many years to come. That said, Jay Powell would still have to explain in more detail how the new framework will be translated into policy action.”
The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $37.00. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.67% today.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday but the report pace picks up rapidly on Tuesday.
Technically, the gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, amid recent choppy and sideways trading that has produced the bullish coiling pattern. Prices are still in an overall near-term uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in October futures above solid resistance at the September high of $1,992.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,966.60 and then at $1,972.40. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $1,936.20 and then at $1,925.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
December silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an overall price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $30.19 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $23.80. First resistance is seen at $27.50 and then at last week’s high of $27.755. Next support is seen at $26.565 and then at last week’s low of $25.985. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.