Off The Wire
Gold to march higher but record-breaking rally will slow: Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters) - Gold will average less than $2,000 dollars an ounce next year, a Reuters poll showed, as a record-breaking rally slows, although prices are still expected to touch new highs.
Gold hit an all-time peak of $2,072.50 an ounce in August from around $1,300 in mid-2019, its fastest rally since the aftermath of the financial crisis a decade ago.
The rally was driven by central banks responding to economic slowdown and the new coronavirus by cutting interest rates and pumping money into markets, which boosted gold by lowering returns on bonds and raising the threat of inflation.
Prices have since slipped to around $1,900 as U.S. bond returns and the dollar stabilised and investors bought less bullion. Many analysts remain bullish, however.
Spot gold will average $1,788 an ounce this year and $1,965 an ounce in 2021, the median forecasts returned by the poll of 42 analysts and traders showed.
That compares to predictions of $1,713 for 2020 and $1,800 for 2021 in a similar survey three months ago.
“The powerful combination of rock-bottom rates, rising demand for inflation hedges and the potential for a weaker dollar all point to further gains,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
A reduction in bets on higher prices makes space for speculators to push prices higher by rebuilding positions, said Ross Norman, an independent analyst.
But weak demand for gold jewellery, reduced purchases by central banks and lower investor buying could weigh on prices, said LBBW analyst Frank Schallenberger.
For silver, the poll returned median forecasts for prices to average $20.50 an ounce this year and $26 in 2021, up sharply from predictions of $17.50 and $20.03 in the poll in July.
Silver has risen even more than gold, moving from around $15 an ounce in mid-2019 to a seven-year high of $29.84 before slipping to around $25.
Because around half of silver is used in industrial applications, weak global economic growth may hamper price gains, analysts said.
Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Sumita Layek; editing by Arpan Varghese, Peter Hobson and Barbara Lewis