Safe-haven buying boosts gold, silver just ahead of U.S. elections
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver futures prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Monday, on safe-haven demand just one day before the U.S. elections and all of the uncertainty and anxiousness surrounding the matter. December gold futures were last up $15.00 at $1,894.90 and December Comex silver was last up $0.474 at $24.12 an ounce.
It’s a huge trading week as the U.S. election is Tuesday. Joe Biden has a sizeable lead over President Donald Trump in most polls. However, the polls were wrong in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016. Also, Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.K. joining France in having to lock down many businesses. U.S. Covid-19 cases are hitting daily records. Still, overall trader and investor risk appetite is upbeat to start the first week of November. It could be that the market place is viewing the U.S. presidential election as win-win for the U.S. stock market--at least for the near term. A Biden victory would likely open up the spigots of massive government spending that would boost the U.S. economy. A Trump victory would keep corporate and individual taxes lower and keep in place business-friendly regulations that Trump put in place during his presidency.
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, boosted by upbeat purchasing managers reports out of Asia and Europe. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday.
In other news, the U.S. ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for October came in at 59.3 versus versus 55.4 in September. The Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.4 in October. Meantime, the Euro zone October PMI came in at 54.8 versus 53.7 in September. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. EU workhorse Germany’s manufacturing PMI was 58.2 in October. And China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 53.6 in October versus 53.0 in September, and at a multi-year high. China’s “official” manufacturing PMI, which is a more complete survey, showed a reading of 51.4 in October versus 51.5 in September.
Besides the U.S. election, important U.S. economic data out this week includes the FOMC meeting that begins Wednesday and ends Thursday with a statement and following press conference from Fed Chief Jay Powell. Also, the Labor Department’s monthly employment situation report is due out Friday morning.
The important outside markets early today see the 2020-11-02 firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer at midday today after hitting a five-month low overnight, and presently trading around $36.50 a barrel. Crude oil has been hit by demand concerns amid the renewed lockdowns in Europe that could be a precursor to the U.S. locking down more businesses. The breakdown in crude oil prices is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.86% today.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the October high of $1,939.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the September low of $1,851.00. First resistance is seen at $1,900.00 and then at last week’s high of $1,913.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,873.30 and then at last week’s low of $1,859.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5
December silver futures were bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $25.71 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $21.81. First resistance is seen at $24.50 and then at last week’s high of $24.675. Next support is seen at today’s low of $23.46 and then at last week’s low of $22.62. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December N.Y. copper closed up 250 points at 307.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 321.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 290.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 309.65 cents and then at last week’s high of 314.30 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 302.80 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.