Price gains for gold, silver on safe-haven demand amid U.S. election jitters
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver futures prices are again moderately higher in early U.S. trading Tuesday, on more safe-haven demand as the highly anticipated and very uncertain U.S. election day is at hand. December gold futures were last up $8.40 at $1,900.80 and December Comex silver was last up $0.282 at $24.315 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly higher. Today is the day—arguably the most contentious U.S. presidential election in U.S. history is at hand in a bitterly divided nation. So far this week the stock and financial markets are not showing keen risk aversion. Gold is seeing a bit of safe-haven demand. Contender Joe Biden has a sizeable lead over President Donald Trump in most polls. However, the polls were wrong in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016. Some businesses in some cities are boarding up their windows in case of civil unrest following the elections. There are so many uncertainties regarding the election results and how the American public and even the standing U.S. government reacts in the aftermath of the voting results. It is a bit surprising to this longtime market watcher that the marketplace presently appears so calm and is not exhibiting much risk aversion.
The second big market element is the pandemic. Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.K. and France locking down many businesses. U.S. Covid-19 cases are hitting daily records, with some health experts saying the U.S. will experience a “dark winter.”
In overnight news, Australia’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 0.15%, to 0.1%.
It’s also a week in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets starting Wednesday and on Thursday issues a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.
And on Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.
The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and presently trading around $38.00 a barrel. Crude oil is seeing a strong rebound after hitting a five-month low Monday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.87% today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and domestic auto industry sales.
Technically, the December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are gaining a bit of momentum. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the October high of $1,939.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the September low of $1,851.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,913.80 and then at $1,925.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,887.60 and then at this week’s low of $1,873.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5
December silver futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as they have stabilized prices and now have some momentum. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $25.71 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $21.81. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $25.765 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $23.975 and then at this week’s low of $23.46. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.