Price rebound for gold ahead of big U.S. data day
(Kitco News) - Gold futures prices are moderately up in early U.S. trading Wednesday, on some short covering in the futures market and some perceived bargain hunting in the cash market. The yellow metal hit a nearly five-month low Tuesday. Gold and silver have been socked this week by much better risk appetite in the marketplace. December gold futures were last up $8.00 at $1,812.60 and December Comex silver was last up $0.155 at $23.455 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes had record-high closes on Tuesday. Don’t be surprised to see markets mostly pause today, ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. And then on Friday it’s usually one of the slowest U.S. trading days of the year.
However, Wednesday is a very busy day for U.S. economic data, which could move the markets. Due for release today includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, advance economic indicators, durable goods orders, the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays new residential sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the FOMC minutes, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
Marketplace attitudes have been very upbeat this week, as traders and investors are opting to look past the presently very bad Covid-19 situation in the U.S. and Europe, which is forcing fresh restrictions on businesses and the public. Instead, markets are looking into 2021, when vaccines are very likely coming to market and economies are very likely to be strongly rebounding as Covid gets tamped down. Also this week, President Trump has blinked regarding realizing Joe Biden beat him in the U.S. presidential election and has allowed Biden’s team to get government assistance in setting up shop.
The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer, hitting an eight-month high overnight and trading around $45.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.86%.
As an aside, many conspiracy theorists have blamed JP Morgan for manipulating futures markets over the years, especially gold. Many market watchers have brushed those notions off, reckoning major futures markets are way too big to see significant and sustained price manipulation. For JP Morgan’s part, the big investment bank was just fined another quarter-billion dollars for “fiduciary” shortcomings. JP’s long list of big government fines over the years certainly begs the question: “What if JP is big enough to have a sustained and significant influence over markets?” The bank’s unsavory actions at the least suggest, “it could if it would.” In September, JP paid almost a billion dollars to settle market manipulation charges in precious metals and U.S. Treasuries between 2008 and 2016, and admitted to the misconduct.
Technically, the December gold futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at this week’s high of $1,875.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at $1,825.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $1,836.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,797.10 and then at $1,775.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
December silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $22.625. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $23.65 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.935 and then at $22.625. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.