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Bulls were right three out of four times when guessing 2020 precious metal prices

Kitco News

There was a lot of under-shooting in the LBMA's annual contest where analysts guess what will be the average price of precious metals in the year ahead.

LBMA reviewed the guesses of analysts at the start of 2020 and compared their answers to how precious metals actually performed.

The result was not surprising given the unexpected turn in 2020: COVID-19 followed by worldwide central bank stimulus.

Regarding gold, analysts at LBMA forecast $1,558.8, up 12% from 2019.

It was a big miss with the actual price at $1,769.59, an undershoot of more than $200.

Silver should have also got a higher bid.

"Analysts had forecast that the silver price would average $18.21 in 2020, a rather bullish forecast compared to the actual average in 2019 of $16.2. However, the actual average price out-turned at $20.55, and so again it paid to be at the bullish end of the spectrum," writes the LBMA.

The last metal that ran higher than the analyst's average predictions was palladium. LBMA said that analysts forecast average prices for 2020 to be just $50 higher at $2,116. The actual average price for the year was $2,192.54.

Platinum was the only overshoot.

"Analysts had forecast a bullish outlook for platinum prices in 2020 with an average forecast of $1,005.1 compared to the actual average price in 2019 of $862.9. However, the actual average price in 2020 was $882.63, just over $90 below its price in the first half of 2020," writes the LBMA.

Winners who came closest to guessing what the prices would be received a 1oz gold bar.

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