Gold's 'strongest price rally' is coming: Wells Fargo's 2021 target is $2,200
(Kitco News) Investors could still see some of the strongest price action in gold this year, according to Wells Fargo, which sees signs of a developing rally.
The driver behind this new spark in prices is diminishing supply growth. And it could get gold up to $2,200 an ounce this year, said Wells Fargo's head of real asset strategy John LaForge.
"Gold supplies have flipped from excessive to deficient," LaForge said in the latest update. "Such times in the past have sparked some of gold's strongest price rallies."
Due to "excessive supplies," gold prices have had a difficult time prior to 2018, LaForge pointed out.
"Supply had become excessive in 2011 because gold prices had surged from $250 to $1900 per ounce, during the decade from 2001 to 2011. Many investors were looking for gold during this decade, and they all seemed to find it," he wrote.
However, this picture has shifted in the past three years, with gold supplies moving from "excessive to deficient." This is why Wells Fargo has turned positive on gold.
"Such times in the past have sparked some of gold's strongest price rallies … We believe gold could be on the eve of a new commodity bull super-cycle, which would be only the seventh since the year 1800," LaForge said. "Gold prices have climbed over 40% since 2018, and we believe that more gains lie ahead."
Aside from the supply argument, gold will also be driven by its more well-known trends, including low real interest rates, money printing, and a weaker U.S. dollar, according to Wells Fargo.
"These trends remain largely intact, and we remain gold bulls with a 2021 target range of $2,100 to $2,200," LaForge said.