The Commerzbank and Credit Suisse technical teams have a slightly opposing view on the next move in gold.
(Kitco News) - Kicking off with Credit Suisse, they believe that the yellow metal has seen a cap at the $1755/65 level to maintain its immediate downside bias. They spoke in more detail in the recent technical note saying "Gold strength has been capped, for now at least, below resistance at $1755/65 and whilst below here the outlook will stay seen lower for a retest of key support at $1682/71 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2015/2020 bull market and the recent and June 2020 lows. An eventual break in due course can see support next at $1620/15 and ultimately the "measured top objective" and 50% retracement at $1564/61.". They did however point out a bullish scenario noting "Above $1765 though would instead see a near-term base established for a deeper recovery to $1855/75, but with a fresh cap looked for here.".
Commerzbank however are bullish on gold. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research said "Gold continues to hold over the 1670.49 June low and looks to be attempting to base near term at 1677.73/1676.80. The 2020-2021 uptrend is also in this vicinity at 1688.50.". One thing they can agree on is the levels. She went on to say "Further upside attempts look likely and attention has reverted to the 1765.24/61 November low and May 2020 high. Only a close above here will negate downside pressure and convince us there is scope to recover to the 1816.21 23rd February high and the 200-day ma at 1858." As always there was a caveat, with Jones adding "Below 1670 lies the 50 % retracement of the 2018-2021 advance at 1616.18. Below it the September 2019 high can be seen at 1557.29.".