Gold price is looking for a breakout next week, watch the $1,800 level - Kitco's gold price survey
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(Kitco News) - Wall Street and Main Street are bullish on gold next week, both expecting higher prices after a week of building support right below the $1,800 an ounce level, according to Kitco's weekly gold price survey.
Gold is ending the week up around 1% after dropping $100 on the hawkish Federal Reserve announcement in the previous week. August Comex gold futures were last trading at $1,786.10 an ounce.
Analysts are closely keeping an eye on the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. macro data as the key drivers for gold.
Kitco's gold price survey results showed that out of 13 participating analysts on the Wall Street side, 53.8% were bullish on prices next week. The other half of the votes were evenly split between the bearish and neutral camps, each gathering 23.1% of the votes.
A similar trend was seen on Main Street. Out of the 839 participating retail investors, 54.1% were bullish on prices next week, 24.2% were bearish, and 21.7% were neutral.
A move above the psychological $1,800 an ounce level was cited as the key bullish sign to watch for.
"The momentum indicators are turning up, and a base appears to have been forged around $1,773. A move above $1,800 is needed to confirm the bottom. Initial target $1,820 (38.2%) of June ’s decline and $1,833 (~200-day moving average). U.S. 10-year yield stalled at 1.50%," Bannockburn Global Forex managing director Marc Chandler told Kitco News. "I like gold higher next week."
The selloff in gold has run its course from a technical perspective, said SIA Wealth Management chief market strategist Colin Cieszynski. "I am bullish on gold for the coming week. A trading bounce appears to have started," he noted.
Also, there is a view that the Fed-triggered selloff was overdone, especially considering the more dovish comments coming from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony this week.
"As the Federal Reserve members retreat from their allegedly more hawkish attitude of earlier in the month, and a growing realization takes hold that inflation will be more persistent than some like to imagine, gold will recover from the exaggerated move that followed the last Fed meeting," said Adrian Day Asset Management president Adrian Day.
Another bullish signal is that bitcoin is not seeing a renewed rally after briefly falling below $30,000 and erasing all the year-to-date gains this week, added Chandler.
Bearish voices in the gold space pointed to gold's struggle to recover after falling more than 5% on the Fed's hawkish announcement.
"Gold has struggled to bounce since the Fed meeting even with the U.S. dollar giving back some ground and stocks rebounding. That's not a great sign. I'm willing to watch and wait for a few more days, but if it can't get above $1,800 in the next few days, it's a sell signal," said Forexlive.com chief currency strategist Adam Button.
In the last two weeks, gold has dropped below several bearish formations, which might be hard to get out of, added other analysts. Kitco's senior market analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart, which suggests selling pressure next week.