Gold prices to push above $2,000 and silver to double on its way to $50 in 2023 - Avi Gilburt
Welcome to Kitco News' 2023 Outlook Series. Uncertainty continues to dominate financial markets as central bank monetary policies push the global economy into a recession to cool down inflation. Stay tuned to Kitco News to learn from the experts on how to navigate turbulent financial markets in 2023.
In an interview with Kitco News, Avi Gilburt, founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, said that gold and silver are getting ready to rise after a two-year consolidation period. He sees gold prices pushing solidly above $2,000, and said silver could easily double to above $40 an ounce and eventually push back to its all-time highs at $50.
"I was taught that if you didn't have anything nice to say, then don't say anything at all, and that is what it has been like for gold and silver," said Gilburt. "I've just been biding my time and waiting for the setup for the next rally to $2,100."
Looking at gold's long-term technical picture, Gilburt said he has been tracking a five-wave rally in gold, going all the way back to the 2015 lows.
"Back in August of 2020, we hit the top of the third wave. From then, until we hit the low back in early November of this year, we basically had a two-year consolidation in a fourth wave. We are now preparing to rocket higher in a fifth wave," he said.
Gilburt added that traditionally, the fifth wave is fairly powerful, with the potential for prices to go parabolic.
Gilburt trades gold through the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund: SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD). He said his minimum target for GLD in 2023 is $220 per share.
"It would not shock me if we went as high as $245 or $250. But $220 seems to be a very reasonable target at this time," he said.
However, before gold starts its major bull rally, Gilburt said he is looking for one more pullback. He said he is looking for GLD to test support between $157 and $161, representing about a 6% decline from current prices. GLD last traded at $166.83 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.
"The next pullback will likely be a buying opportunity, and you could put stops around $155,” he said. "But with this setup, I'm looking to start getting aggressive in the complex, start using some leverage, start using some option plays."
|Gold could see a difficult start to 2023 but will shine brighter by year-end - analysts|
Turning to silver, Gilburt said that he sees even more potential than gold.
"Silver is getting set up for both a third and a fifth wave rally over the coming year, year-and-a-half. Silver may replicate what we saw in 2010 and 2011. That price action was outright parabolic," he said.
Gilburt said that because silver has lagged in the precious metals space for the last two years, it has a lot of catching up to do.
However, similar to gold, Gilburt said he is looking for one more selloff.
"I'm looking for a pullback towards the $21, $22 region in silver to set up the next major rally," he said. "Long-term, I'm looking for silver to hit $50, but that might take a few years. Prices could easily double in 2023 and the first half of 2024."