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The gold bull is looking a little tired
(Kitco News) - After two months of solid gains, it looks like the gold's bull run is running out of steam. While some may be disappointed that the market is hitting resistance before a run to $2,000, consolidation could be healthy.
But don't be too disappointed because, in this bull run, gold has made some major achievements. This week, as prices tested resistance around $1,940 an ounce, it entered into a technical bull market, rising 20% from its lows in November.
The market is up roughly $100 this month, its best start to the year since 2012. And while this week's gains might be muted, the precious metal has notched its sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak since the summer of 2020.
Outside of the U.S., gold hit a record high against the Japanese yen. As gold rallies in most currencies, analysts are also starting to predict record highs for the U.S. dollar.
No doubt about it, it has been a big week for the precious metal, so maybe it's time for a break. The most significant benefit to a consolidation or short-term correction would be that it will give investors, who have ignored gold through most of 2022, an opportunity to get back into the market.
A recurring comment Kitco News heard from analysts this week is that this has been one of the quietest bull markets in recent history. Investment demand from gold-backed exchange-traded funds has been subdued at best and speculative positioning is well off its highs, especially considering where the price is.
While gold is due for a correction, there are good reasons to believe its bullish uptrend will remain in place. Some people are paying attention. This week, Switzerland's largest federal pension fund said it was increasing its gold exposure to 1%. This comes after their precious metal investments saw gains of 0.06% last year, outperforming bonds and equities which were solidly in the red.
"Bonds had the largest adverse effect in 2022. Returning roughly -12% overall, they made a negative contribution of -6.3 percentage points to the consolidated total return of -9.6%. Equities, meanwhile, contributed -4.1 percentage points," the fund said.
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Gold and palladium were the winners in 2022 as silver and platinum lagged - LBMA |
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs continues to reiterate their bullish outlook for gold.
"Gold, in particular, is likely to be on a cusp of sustained upside as de-dollarisation is very bullish gold... at a time that the Fed is likely to increasingly shift towards growth concerns slowing its rate hike path allowing ETF holdings to stabilize," the investment bank said in its latest report.
Finally, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMPs, won the 2022 top gold forecast in the London Bullion Market Association's annual price forecast competition. She saw gold prices averaging around $1,800 for the year, just nine cents off the LBMA's $1,800.09 average price in 2022.
Shiels said that she is bullish on gold for this year, but does see signs that it is ready to consolidate.
