Gold price rallies, post-FOMC, as USDX, U.S. bond yields sink
Welcome to Kitco News' 2023 Outlook Series. Uncertainty continues to dominate financial markets as central bank monetary policies push the global economy into a recession to cool down inflation. Stay tuned to Kitco News to learn from the experts on how to navigate turbulent financial markets in 2023.
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver pricesare higher and near their daily highs in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, in the wake of a slight interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve that was widely expected. April gold was up $15.30 at $1,960.40 and March silver was up $0.199 at $24.03.
The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that just ended. The FOMC raised its Fed funds rate range by 0.25%, as expected, following the last meeting’s 0.5% rate hike. The FOMC statement said U.S. inflation has eased a bit but remains too high, suggesting more rate hikes are coming. The press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saw the chairman maintain his vigilance at stomping out problematic price inflation. Yet during his remarks, the marketplace saw its mood improve markedly as the U.S. stock indexes rallied, the U.S. dollar index tanked, U.S. Treasury yields declined, and gold and silver prices rallied. It could be that the marketplace was just relieved Powell did not sound even more hawkish than he had in his recent remarks. The European Central Bank and Bank of England hold their monetary policy meetings Thursday.
Today’s ADP national employment report for January showed a rise of 106,000 workers, which was below the consensus forecast for a rise of 190,000. Gold prices up-ticked just very slightly following the report. The ADP report is a precursor to the more important employment situation report for January from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number in that report is forecast to come in at up 187,000 jobs.
|LBMA annual survey sees gold prices averaging the year around $1,859 an ounce, silver to hold around $23.65|
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower and hitting an eight-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply down and trading around $76.75 a barrel. A surprising weekly rise in U.S. liquid energy stocks in the latest reporting week pressured the energy markets today. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.404%.
Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the January high of $1,966.50 and then at $1,975.00. First support is seen at $1,950.00 and then at today’s low of $1,936.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been choppy and sideways for weeks. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $24.775. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $24.415 and then at $24.67. Next support is seen at today’s low of $23.44 and then at this week’s low of $23.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
March N.Y. copper closed down 1,085 points at 411.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 395.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 420.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 424.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 410.55 cents and then at 405.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.