Crypto volatility spikes, but the long-term outlook remains positive
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(Kitco News) - Cryptos continued to consolidate in trading on Thursday as traders look to close out the first quarter on a high note amid a backdrop of de-dollarization and banking woes.
U.S. equities started the day off strong before a midday slump threatened to push prices into the negative. Bulls managed to regain the momentum in the afternoon, leading to a positive finish for the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq, which closed up 0.57%, 0.43%, and 0.73%, respectively.
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $29,000 in the early trading hours, but quickly reversed course and hit a low of $27,812 in afternoon trading before being bid back above support at $28,100.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The early morning surge for BTC resulted in a new contract high or April Bitcoin futures, according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.
“Bitcoin bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart,” he said, adding, “The trend is the bulls’ friend and more upside is likely.”
Long term outlook
A macro look at where Bitcoin could find its next major resistance was offered by crypto analyst Moustache, who posted the following chart highlighting the importance of the 1-year moving average, which suggests a heavy level of pushback once BTC hits $45,000.
#Bitcoin??— ????????????????? ?? (@el_crypto_prof) March 30, 2023
Most of you would probably like to know, where $BTC will make a major stop next.
If we look at history, the 1 Year MA x2 line became very interesting for a bigger target.
This line is currently around $45.000 Dollars.$BTC is far from finished imo. pic.twitter.com/BbKClTEKgY
Meanwhile, a look at the weekly chart shows that Bitcoin has actually been in a long-term bull market since 2019, with the next wave having the potential to see the top crypto surpass $100,000 before the end of 2023, according to technical analyst Gert ban Lagen.
$BTC [1W]: BullMarket since 2019— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) March 30, 2023
I - Impulse, Accumulation
II - Correction, Shake-out
III - Impulse, Momentum
IV - Correction, Beartrap
V - Impulse Blow-off
Target zone V:
1.272-1.618 extension of III-IV and ATH-IV
Invalidation: $13,800 @ I#Bitcoin #BTC #BullMarket pic.twitter.com/v45jJ7oUb7
And Elliot Wave International noticed an interesting correlation between Bitcoin and inflation which shows that BTC may actually serve as a leading indicator for inflation. With the price of BTC rising quickly in 2023, this may signal that another wave higher inflation may soon be upon us.
An interesting idea has been getting traction lately -- namely, that #inflation is "bad" for #Bitcoin. The arguments for this correlation may sound reasonable -- until you plot both inflation and Bitcoin's price on a chart. Check out https://t.co/oHyd8ZCBLb… pic.twitter.com/ZIbz8ocNdY— Elliott Wave International (@elliottwaveintl) March 29, 2023
A lack of momentum in the altcoin market
It was an overall down day for the altcoin market aside from a trio of double-digit gainers as traders continue to take profits and reposition themselves ahead of the next run.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Arbitrum (ARB) and Injective (INJ) led the field with gains of 12.9%, while the decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch Network (1INCH) saw its token price increase 10.54%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.17 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.3%.