Mild price gains in gold as USDX dips, crude oil firmer
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are slightly higher and silver prices moderately up in early U.S. trading Thursday, supported by a lower U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices on this day. Traders are looking for the next major fundamental input to drive the metals markets, but they may have to wait until next week. August gold was last up $1.70 at $1,960.10 and July silver was up $0.246 at $23.775.
The marketplace is starting to zero in on next week's FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. The majority of the marketplace thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. But now many market watchers think the U.S. central bank will follow the Bank of Canada's recent moves. The BOC this week raised interest rates by 0.25% after a four-month pause. The BOC's move “brings home the reality that a pause needn't be a pivot. It can also be a way to slow down increases while fresh data come in," said a Wall Street Journal story today.
Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.1% from the fourth quarter. Meantime, the fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.1%. That means the Euro zone technically entered a recession in the first quarter, albeit just barely.
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In other news, the Turkish lira hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar, prompting some worries of a possible currency contagion at some point, if the lira continues to weaken.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $73.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.811%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and monthly wholesale trade.
Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,949.60. First resistance is seen at $1,975.00 and then at this week's high of $1,986.50. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,953.80 and then at the May low of $1,949.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
The silver bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at this week's high of $24.12. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $23.51 and then at this week's low of $23.32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.