|“ Paul van Eeden is a man
who will help many make their fortunes. ”
relied on Paul van Eeden’s investment guidence
for many years.” E.C.
|“Let me say that Paul van
Eeden’s commentary is the best of any newsletter
I have ever subscribed to.” J.T
Paul van Eeden
Investor, analyst, commentator
Commodity analysts and financial publications were
calling for higher gold prices in the mid 1990s, so the fact that
the price of gold declined dramatically in the ensuing years illustrated
an inherent flaw in the prevalent paradigm. Gold was being analyzed
as a commodity with an emphasis on mine supply, fabrication demand
and derivative trading, as well as, of course, producer hedging
and Central Bank sales.
At the San Francisco Gold Show in November 1998, Paul van Eeden
introduced his original thesis that the gold price in US dollars
is driven by the US dollar exchange rate, and that traditional commodity
style analyses would not yield predictive results when applied to
gold. He showed that a dollar-only view of the gold market is inadequate:
understanding the gold price requires a global view, incorporating
exchange rates across many currencies. This novel line of thinking
is now ubiquitously accepted.
In 2003 Paul went further, showing that the price of gold in US
dollars is tightly correlated to the expansion of US monetary aggregates
(M3) and that an analysis of gold as money not only clarifiesthe
gold price from 1971 to the present, it has other implications that
are still unforeseen by most financial and commodity analysts today.
One of these is that the gold price will soon exceed $1,000 an ounce.
Another is that, aside from operational differences, not all gold
mining companies will benefit equally from this increase in the
Paul van Eeden not only does his own research on the fundamental
drivers behind the gold market, he also takes a hands-on approach
to investment analysis: interviewing management, studying exploration
projects and visiting mining operations. Whilst investing in mining
and exploration companies is inherently risky, value is never far
from his mind and features forcefully in his selection criteria.