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The devaluation of gold
July 15, 2005

Last week’s comment that the increase in gold supply since 1900 has, in effect, devalued gold by an average of 1.73% per year resulted in a flurry of emails. So I thought I would follow up this week and continue to look at gold’s value.

Before we get to that, let’s get some things out of the way. One comment I received claimed that monetary inflation only occurs when the supply of money exceeds the increase in real gross national product. That is incorrect. Inflation occurs when the supply of money increases. Price increases occur when the rate of inflation exceeds the rate of increase in real gross national product. An increase in prices is not the same as inflation; it is the result of monetary inflation.

Another comment was that gold is removed from supply when it is fabricated into jewelry. It all depends on how you look at jewelry. Many of us view jewelry purely as items of adornment. But during times of trouble jewelry quickly becomes a source of currency and in some countries jewelry is widely accepted as a store of wealth. In my opinion gold jewelry is no different than coins or bars of gold. It has a higher manufactured component to it that could become a loss to the owner, but it will always have at least its intrinsic weight-value of gold (less smelting costs).

Here is a recap for those who did not read last week’s commentary. If we view gold as money then the supply of gold consists of all the gold that has ever been mined, since practically all of it is still with us in one form or another, mostly as bars, coins and jewelry. Annual mine production of gold increases the supply of gold (the total of all the gold previously mined) and can therefore be thought of as inflation of the gold supply. The inflation rate of gold is annual mine production as a percentage of all the gold previously mined.

Since 1900 the supply of gold has increased, due to mining, by an average annual compound rate of 1.73%. As the supply of money increases, the value of each unit of that money decreases. The value of each ounce of gold has therefore decreased by an average of 1.73% per year since 1900 in absolute terms, not relative to anything else.

By comparison, the US money supply (as measured by M3) has been increasing by an average compound rate of 7.8% since 1959. While gold devalues at the rate of 1.73% per year, the dollar devalues more rapidly. The value of gold in US dollars has therefore increased at an average rate of 6.07% since 1959. Note that I did not say “the price of gold” in the previous sentence. We all know that gold was under-priced at $35 an ounce in 1959. According to work I have done, I estimate that the gold price should have been about $51.22 an ounce in 1959 and, if you assume that that is more or less correct, you can calculate what the gold price should be today. Compounding $51.22 at 6.07% for 46 years results in a current value for gold of $770 an ounce.

The gold price today would be about $770 an ounce were it not for the surge in the US dollar exchange rate during the 1990s. The fact that gold is not trading at around $770 an ounce today is due solely to the strength in the dollar; it has nothing to do with market manipulation or a conspiracy against gold. In due course I believe that the US dollar will decline sufficiently for the gold price to reach its fair value again, but that will be nothing other than a bear market in the dollar. In the long run, the percentage increase in the price of gold in US dollars is equal the difference between the inflation rate of gold and the inflation rate of the dollar. The same is true for the price of gold in any other currency. In the short-term, however, the gold price can deviate from its fair value due to exchange rate volatility and capital flows (see last week’s commentary).

Exchange rates cannot be ignored. The moment you define the gold price in terms of a currency, any currency, you have linked it to the exchange rate of that currency. To talk about the price of gold is meaningless: we have to specify in which currency we are pricing gold. Consequently, the price of gold in US dollars is subject to changes in the US dollar exchange rate, the price of gold in euros is subject to the euro exchange rate and the price of gold in yen is subject to the yen exchange rate.

We can also attempt to value gold in other terms. We could measure gold against a basket of goods and services. Or we could measure gold against the world’s population.

Gold’s value relative to goods and services is a not a useful indicator. The value of gold will decrease against goods and services that become scarcer with time and increase with respect to goods and services that become more abundant. This is again a relative game, so we have to consider the relative changes in the goods and services. Not to mention the difficulty of trying to come up with goods or services that are uniform and constant over time.

According to the United Nations the global population in 1950 was 2,519,470,000 and it is 6,464,750,000 now. That is an average annual compound increase of 1.73% and by coincidence the same rate as gold inflation -- I didn’t make this up. Because the increase in population is the same as the increase in the supply of gold, the value of gold remains constant relative to people.

Because the inflation rate of gold and the increase in population are similar we should find that the value of gold remains constant relative to labor. The biggest problem (other than a lack of data) is that labor costs change dramatically depending on the skills, experience and level of education of the labor force. While it may be difficult to come up with an international labor cost index against which to measure gold the mere fact that population growth and gold inflation occur at similar rates would suggest that gold should retain its value relative to labor, and labor is perhaps the most basic measure of value.

Comparing gold’s inflation rate to changes in a country’s gross domestic product could give us an idea of how gold’s value changes in relation to goods and services in that particular country. But there are so many uncertainties when it comes to gross domestic product, such as the deflator that is used and, in the case of the US, hedonic adjustments, that I do not think we will find it to be a reliable measure of gold’s value.

Regardless of what we use to gauge the value of gold, we should keep in mind that gold is simply a store of wealth, an independent form of money that cannot be created at will and therefore retains its value better than anything else.

Paul van Eeden

 


Paul van Eeden works primarily to find investments for his own portfolio and shares his investment ideas with subscribers to his weekly investment publication. For more information please visit his website (www.paulvaneeden.com) or contact his publisher at (800) 528-0559 or (602) 252-4477.

Disclaimer

This letter/article is not intended to meet your specific individual investment needs and it is not tailored to your personal financial situation. Nothing contained herein constitutes, is intended, or deemed to be -- either implied or otherwise -- investment advice. This letter/article reflects the personal views and opinions of Paul van Eeden and that is all it purports to be. While the information herein is believed to be accurate and reliable it is not guaranteed or implied to be so. The information herein may not be complete or correct; it is provided in good faith but without any legal responsibility or obligation to provide future updates. Neither Paul van Eeden, nor anyone else, accepts any responsibility, or assumes any liability, whatsoever, for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of the information in this letter/article. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice, may become outdated and will not be updated. Paul van Eeden, entities that he controls, family, friends, employees, associates, and others may have positions in securities mentioned, or discussed, in this letter/article. While every attempt is made to avoid conflicts of interest, such conflicts do arise from time to time. Whenever a conflict of interest arises, every attempt is made to resolve such conflict in the best possible interest of all parties, but you should not assume that your interest would be placed ahead of anyone else’s interest in the event of a conflict of interest. No part of this letter/article may be reproduced, copied, emailed, faxed, or distributed (in any form) without the express written permission of Paul van Eeden. Everything contained herein is subject to international copyright protection.


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