Canadian dollar edges lower as GDP miss clips rate hike prospects

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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TORONTO, May 29 (Reuters) - The Canadian ​dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as domestic data ‌that showed the economy slipping into a surprise technical recession offset the prospect of an imminent deal to extend the ceasefire in the Middle East.

The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3790 per ​U.S. dollar, or 72.52 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3771 ​to 1.3829.

On Thursday, the currency hit a six-week intraday low of ⁠1.3869. For the week, it was up 0.2%.

Canadian gross domestic product declined at an ​annualized rate of 0.1% in the first quarter after a downwardly revised contraction of ​1% in the fourth quarter of last year, as trade uncertainty weighed on business investment. Analysts and the Bank of Canada had forecast first-quarter growth of 1.5%.

"The weak GDP read for Canada is ​a concern and is shifting rate expectations," said Amo Sahota, a director at Klarity ​FX in San Francisco. "The July USMCA renegotiation is also fast approaching and clearly weighing on commitment for ‌CAD ⁠positioning."

Investors were pricing in one interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada this year, down from two that were expected before recent cooler-than-expected inflation data.

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has shielded much of Canada's exports from U.S. tariffs, is set for review ​by a July 1 ​deadline.

U.S. President Donald ⁠Trump said he would make a final decision on Friday over a deal with Iran to extend their ceasefire that would need to ​include opening the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling Tehran's capacity ​to make ⁠a nuclear weapon.

The U.S. dollar extended its weekly decline against a basket of major currencies, while Wall Street's major indexes added to their recent gains and the price of oil , one of Canada's ⁠major exports, ​was trading 1.6% lower at $87.50 a barrel.

Canadian bond ​yields moved lower across a steeper curve. The 10-year was down 2.5 basis points at 3.411% after earlier ​touching the lowest since April 8 at 3.399%.

Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

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