After an incredible year for investors of junior resource stocks, who benefitted handsomely as gold, silver, and copper prices tallied fresh record highs during a single calendar year for the first time since 1980, the new year has literally started off with a bang.
All three metals continued their blistering surge higher this week, as the U.S. military operation "Absolute Resolve" bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela over the weekend, with Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife flown to New York City to face narcoterrorism charges.
President Trump's statement that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela until proper political transition had investors scrambling for both gold and silver safe havens to begin the week, while China’s access to cheap oil from the country came to a sudden halt after the U.S. takeover.
With China purchasing around 778,000 barrels a day before Maduro’s capture, Foreign Ministry spokespeople Mao Ning and Lin Jian demanded Venezuela retain “full and permanent sovereignty” over its natural resources and accused the U.S. of “seriously breaching” international law.
China’s “legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be protected,” according to state media. China’s United Nations representative reiterated this statement, demanding that the U.S. “cease its bullying and coercive practices.”
Meanwhile, President Trump threatened on Thursday to take severe action against Iran if its authorities "start killing people", warning Washington would "hit them very hard" after rights groups accused Iranian security forces of shooting at demonstrators.
The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights on Thursday said security forces had killed at least 45 protesters, including eight minors, after protests against the country’s supreme leader turned deadly last week.
Iran was largely cut off from the outside world after authorities blacked out the internet to curb expanding protests yesterday, with phone calls not reaching the country, flights canceled and online Iranian news sites only intermittently updating.
Iran’s armed forces have been placed at the highest level of readiness, with hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and regular army units on full alert in response to perceived threats from the U. S. and Israel, state media reported.
President Trump has warned of possible military action in Colombia and Mexico as well, while also stating that Cuba's communist regime "looks ready to fall".
Trump’s rhetoric, including his suggestion over the weekend that Washington may have to “do something” about cartels that are “running Mexico,” has revived fears that the U.S. may act unilaterally against Mexico. This has the country now stressing over its own sovereignty.
The U.S. President has also alluded to taking over Greenland, no less. The White House ramped up talk about acquiring the Danish territory on Tuesday, when White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that doing so was a “national security priority” to deter adversaries.
“Utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option at the Commander in Chief’s disposal,” Leavitt added.
Denmark has rebuffed American threats to annex the territory, which is part of its kingdom. “The United States has no legal basis to annex one of the three countries of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in a statement earlier this week.
U.S Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said he would meet leaders of Denmark next week but signalled no retreat from Trump's aim to take over Greenland as alarmed allies, including France and Germany, are working on a plan should the U.S. move on the Danish Territory.
On inauguration day, the commander-in-chief talked about "manifest destiny," evoking William McKinley, one of President Trump’s predecessors, who expanded U.S. territory in the late 1800s.
President Trump has set out to justify the attack launched on Venezuela and Washington imposing its will in Latin America by also citing a policy from James Monroe, another 19th century president.
Trump on Saturday called the raid that led to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro being abducted an update to the Monroe Doctrine, the 1823 declaration by the fifth U.S. president, adding that the U.S. will “run the country” until “a safe, proper and judicious transition” could be carried out.
“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we’ve superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the Donroe document,” Trump said, attaching the first letter of his name to the series of principles. “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again,” he added.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has strongly criticized current U.S. foreign policy and urged countries not to let the world order disintegrate into a "den of robbers" where the unscrupulous take what they want.
Gold, silver, and copper prices reacted in kind to begin the week, with gold zooming to weekly resistance at $4500, silver exploding above $80, and copper rising above $6 per pound on supply disruptions and U.S. trade uncertainty.
Both gold and silver prices are also being buoyed by a sovereign debt default appearing inevitable as governments continue to borrow and spend, with no intention of paying down debt.
With geopolitical chaos now set to increase in 2026, the U.S. government has been running a nearly $2 trillion deficit, as they add $1 trillion to the nearly $39 trillion national debt pile every 80 days.
However, the most under-appreciated tail risk for 2026 is the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy more than economic conditions justify, inadvertently reigniting inflation that has remained well above the central bank's fantasy 2% target.
With President Trump likely to appoint a "Yes Man" that is expected to influence the central bank to continue lowering rates, the nomination of a new Fed Chairman any day now is another key event for precious metals prices.
Although incumbent Jerome Powell's term expires in May, once Trump has named his successor, Powell will immediately become a lame-duck Fed Chairman.
Furthermore, a forthcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision on the President's use of emergency tariff powers could jolt financial markets, if the justices strike down some of the tariffs possibly later today or Monday. Importers are bracing for $150 billion tariff refund fight if Trump loses.
As I type this column, Polymarket sees only a 25% chance that the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs.
JPMorgan forecasts the gold price could reach $6000 per ounce by 2028. For silver, BofA’s head of metals research Michael Widmer has given an ambitious price target of between $135 and $309 per ounce to clients.
Meanwhile, this plethora of bullish precious metals catalysts is set to finally get the attention of American institutional and retail investors, as persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support portfolio diversification into the gold mining complex.
After underperforming the gold price for five years in a row, precious metal equities finally had a breakout year in 2025, as the GDX rose 154%, GDXJ ended up 169%, while the real-money JMJ Portfolio was up 265%.
After an incredible 2025, investors that have only recently discovered the higher-risk/reward junior sector may feel a bit late to the party and therefore, leery of chasing select quality issues that have already soared in price.
However, it is more important to focus on last year's enormous gains radically improving mainstream investors’ sentiment on precious metals, while the gold mining complex remains under-owned.
After mostly ignoring this tiny sector for over a decade, now generalist investors finally realize precious metals allocations are essential.
Despite gold's ascent to 53 all-time daily highs in 2025, Gold ETF holdings among U.S. investors remain six basis points below their 2012 peak—a deficit that has persisted since these investment vehicles first launched in the mid-2000s, according to a Goldman Sachs analyst report published Wednesday.
When considering the marketplace has now entered a new era defined by stubborn inflation and increased geopolitical chaos, while the Fed is expected to keep lowering interest rates during a sovereign debt crisis, the outlook for hard assets and companies that control hard assets remains long-term bullish.
A year ago, the total market cap of the Gold Miners Index was a paltry $320 billion before major financial institutions only recently began to recommend clients invest in the gold complex.
It took only a modest influx of capital to move the needle in a major way. Today, that market cap stands at about $835 billion, a surge that has more than doubled the sector’s total valuation.
Thanks to an AI boom now priced to perfection, there is $33.8 trillion in the Nasdaq 100, whereas three years ago it was $12.4 trillion.
The slightest amount of capital that moves out of tech stocks into the relatively tiny precious metals mining space would be enough to drive prices significantly higher. Especially since the sector is still heavily under-represented in most portfolios, with an average allocation of less than 1%.
Coming into 2026, the combined market capitalization of all S&P 500 stocks is roughly $63 billion, while U.S. stock investors’ implied portfolio gold allocation is still way down near 0.4%.
With U.S. stock investors controlling most of the global stock-market capital, American's gradually returning to the relatively tiny gold mining complex is monumental.
When viewing this 30-year chart of the performance of gold stocks in relation to the S&P 500, it appears that the mining sector is gearing up to breakout of a 12-year base, along with the TSX-Venture Exchange (CDNX), as both are set for another massive up-leg with sector rotation into gold stocks having only recently begun.
Despite rising 75% in 2025, the high-risk/reward CDNX remains over 60% from its highs seen in 2011 when gold peaked at $1925, and 70% below its all-time high at 3372 reached in 2007 when gold was trading near $1000/oz.
When zooming out to look at the long-term setup in CDNX, the TSX-Venture is on the verge of breaking out above the neckline of an uber-bullish 12-year inverse head & shoulders accumulative basing pattern at 1000 with rising volume.
Once this level has been breached convincingly with a weekly close above 1000, possibly later today, the breakout target is over 150% higher at the 2011 high of 2465.
The most difficult part of navigating a bull market is having the patience to sit tight, rather than trying to time every short-term top and bottom. Buying opportunities will likely become less frequent and potentially more violent until the precious metals miner bull market begins to show signs of a major top.
Considering the length of the previous bear market, and the severely depressed levels seen in the TSX-Venture Exchange over the past 12-years in the junior space, a major top in this sector may not be seen for 2-3 years.
After JMJ painstakingly accumulated and recommended positions in high quality gold, silver, and copper related juniors heading into 2025, the recent price action is why being right and sitting tight is the best course of action following a confirmed significant breakout in this tiny sector. Trimming large positions along the way, while holding core positions until the bull market matures, has been recommended.
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