CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:35 p.m. EDT 4 August 2026 $4,111.20 (Basis the October 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,950
Initial Timeframe: 5 August 2026 to 27 August 2026
Stop Loss: $4,220
Gold continued to consolidate largely between $3,990 and $4,160 over the past few weeks.
Factors supported gold during this time, including the ongoing international (U.S. – Iran, Israel – Lebanon) and domestic U.S. political issues, the August Comex futured contract roll, and technical chart points. They were not enough to push gold significantly out of this range, however.
CPM would not be surprised to see gold continue to trade sideways in August, but there appears to be more downside potential over the next three weeks than there is scope for rising prices. Markets are likely to be jockeying for positions in advance of the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole conference 27 – 29 August, trying to anticipate the Fed’s comments and postures. Last August’s Jackson Hole conference triggered heavy gold buying, while the FOMC mid-March 2026 communique knocked $900 off of the gold price in three days, at least temporarily.
Meanwhile the Japanese yen has come under increased downside pressure, leading the U.S. Treasury to join the Bank of Japan in supporting the yen. The Bank of Japan primarily has U.S. Treasuries to sell in order to raise dollars to use to buy yen to support its currency, and the U.S. Treasury would like to limit the sale of its debt at this time. Consequently the U.S. Treasury has been helping the Bank of Japan, buying yen with euros, and probably also U.S. dollars, to support the yen. Such large-scale currency support efforts like this were largely discredited by the middle of the 1980s. They are a temporary bandage and do not address the necessary long-term economic reforms that would stabilize the yen longer term. The Treasury engaging in them sends a message to financial markets that is supportive of investor demand for gold and higher prices in the long run, although it may not have too much effect in the next two weeks. What is said at Jackson Hole about these efforts may be more important, but that is more than three weeks away.
Given this currency market unrest, CPM is tempted to issue a Stand Aside ultra short term recommendation for gold, given this statis, but feels the short-term downside opportunities may outweigh the potential upward pressures on gold prices over the next two weeks.
CPM continues to expect gold prices to rise beyond August.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options
