In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses why gold and silver may be approaching a market bottom, even as prices remain under pressure. He looks at investment demand, the risks surrounding the U.S. congressional elections, and how gold and silver prices react to inflation and interest rates.
With gold trading around $4,036, Jeff explains why CPM is not convinced that prices will reach $3,800, although further declines remain possible. Some investors waiting for lower prices may become buyers if gold continues to hold around $4,000. He also explains why the bottom may be close.
CPM considers $50 a relatively strong potential base for silver, but whether investors resume buying will depend on political and economic conditions. Jeff also reviews platinum’s decline below $1,500 and explains why CPM considers palladium oversold. Supply support for PGMs is currently being outweighed by broader market bearishness and rising interest rates.
Jeff also explains why political uncertainty is likely to continue after Election Day, potentially extending through the seating of the new Congress in January and beyond. He discusses how that uncertainty, together with international conflicts and economic concerns, could encourage investors to hold more gold and silver.
The presentation concludes with an explanation of nominal interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation. Jeff shows why higher rates do not automatically mean lower gold prices and why the forces driving interest rates matter to precious metals demand.
