(Kitco Commentary) - Stocks staged a sharp Monday rebound while Bitcoin's recovery stalled below TBO Support. I remain bullish on crypto, but the charts still separate an opportunity from a confirmed repair.
Bitcoin bounces, but the repair is unfinished
Bitcoin dipped during weekend headline-driven volatility. Monday brought a partial recovery, but not a reclaim of TBO Support; a move down toward the Slow line remains my expectation. I am still bullish on Bitcoin and crypto. That is my outlook, not a claim that the daily chart has already recovered. ETH remains strong bearish below its Cloud, yet this is an opportunity zone to me. ETH/BTC also lost the Cloud on Sunday's drop. An attractive area and a confirmed reversal are two different things.
Stablecoin dominance reaches Fast while Bitcoin share strengthens
ETH/BTC's drop below the Cloud weakens its immediate structure even though I still see opportunity. Combined stablecoin dominance remains in daily bullish consolidation and has touched the weekly Fast line, the initial target from weeks ago. I expect that interaction to precede a market pivot and bounce; it is not proof that cash is moving into crypto. BTC.D moved above TBO Resistance Sunday and its four-hour chart printed a Breakout, which looks like a continuation candidate to me rather than exhaustion. ETH.D took a hit and SOL.D remains very strong bearish. Top 10 dominance went oversold Monday for the first time since its October 19 bullish RSI Reset. Another reset could develop, allowing Top 10 coins to bounce before smaller ALTs; it is not confirmed yet. OTHERS.D remains in choppy bearish consolidation. TOTALE50.D had a green close but remains strong bearish below the Cloud; TOTALE100.D also improved while still well below its Cloud. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
Smaller-coin market caps offer a tentative foothold
TOTALES is near the bottom of its Cloud, overlapping short-term support from July 1's low; that is one reason I think a bounce is due. TOTALE50 recovered from below its Cloud Sunday to inside it Monday, shifting to bullish consolidation, but it is still touch and go. TOTALE100 remains strong bearish. Both charts show RSI above their spaghetti-resistance levels; that improvement does not give them the same trend state. OTHERS wicked nearer the bottom of its daily Cloud. TOTAL3ESBTC made a lower price low with a higher RSI low, without quite reaching oversold Monday. OTHERS/BTC looks stronger to me because it remains inside the Cloud. These market-cap and relative-performance charts are distinct from the dominance percentages above.
Stocks rebound sharply without a blanket all-clear
S&P futures closed more than 2% higher Monday, and TBO Support jumped to Monday's low after 154 daily bars at its prior level. That is a strong pivot low in my view, but we have seen similar signals before. Futures remain technically strong bearish below the Cloud. My expectation is a full recovery of the drop and a push toward 8,000 before year-end, not an achieved level or a guarantee. Cash SPX closed back inside its Cloud; DJI gained 2% and completed the move associated with Thursday's Close Long. NDX rose more than 3% but remains strong bearish; IWM printed a third Close Short, not an Open Long. FANG remains strong bearish. NVDA closed above its open despite finishing lower than the previous close; historical TBO Support at 166.96 is an opportunity I would watch if reached, not a guaranteed fill. Its daily bullish RSI reset contrasts with a bearish, oversold weekly chart. The 2022 comparison is historical, not a promise of repeating those returns. TSLA recovered above short-term support; SPCX gained nearly 6% and reached Fast. DXY fell back inside its Cloud Monday. I expect it below the Cloud and below 100 in a couple of weeks; that remains a forecast. EUR bounced with another bullish divergence and USD/JPY slipped only a little. VIX fell 22% to 19.93 Monday; it could still exceed 22 this week even though I think the worst is behind us. I am still learning MOVE: from what I understand, agreement between falling MOVE and VIX can signal a bottom. That is my tentative interpretation, not a universal rule. Nikkei is slowly recovering but remains strong bearish, as does Shanghai. Hang Seng still needs a close above resistance. KOSPI remains very oversold and strong bearish while another bullish RSI reset/divergence is developing, not confirmed.
Gold confirms a Close Short as metals recover unevenly
Gold rose 1.72% Monday and confirmed a TBO Close Short. The August comparison preceded a rally above the Cloud, but a historical parallel is not a new Open Long or proof of the same outcome. Silver printed a bullish divergence while still strong bearish; it carries little weight for me yet. Platinum closed inside the daily Cloud, right at historical TBO Resistance, with considerable ground left toward the Cloud top around 1,750. Copper gained almost 2% but remains strong bearish. Uranium bounced to Fast, a take-profit reminder or possible short-entry area in my view, not evidence of a personal trade. Oil futures fell further; a break below the Cloud bottom would be strong bearish, though the late June/early July example reversed higher. PAXG/BTC confirmed an Open Long Monday and was less than 2% from weekly Fast in the dated snapshot. BTC/Gold sits at historical TBO Support and became oversold Monday. I think an inflection toward Bitcoin rather than gold may be near; the rotation is not confirmed.
ALT momentum improves selectively; extension risk is real
FLOW confirmed a bullish RSI Reset after an 11-day oversold streak. I expect a pop toward Fast; the reset is confirmed in my November 10 assessment, while the move to Fast is still an expectation. AVAX gained 9% Monday with a bullish divergence and ascending Slow line; USELESS printed a second bullish divergence with ascending Slow. Neither establishes a universal reversal. XRP remains strong bearish, with historical support at 0.9882 and its first daily oversold RSI since June. SOL remains strong bearish despite my bounce optimism. HYPE pierced the Cloud bottom; LINK is holding support but risks losing it. XMR is working on a Close Long and approaching oversold, not confirming either yet. DOGE and HBAR retraced their August pumps; CC still holds support for now. BTW looks weaker. GRAM's RSI reset is developing. AAVE reclaimed 0.382 but remains shaky; WLD has not reached historical support. PEPE remains very strong bullish and I expect a resistance break this week, not a completed one. ARB bounced Monday. PI sold off over the weekend and became deeply oversold Monday; any news explanation is uncertain, and I am not interested in that potential dip buy. NIGHT is only just strong bullish and still below 0.5; INJ holds above the Cloud but below 0.382. STABLE wicked to its Cloud top; ETHFI closed above Fast and is moving toward its Cloud top. TRUMP remains oversold and unchanged; its possible squeeze is my thesis, not a confirmed event. PIEVERSE exceeded the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement Monday, but RSI at 96.88 makes this hyper-overextended: chasing is the risk, not the lesson. FLOKI holds support, JASMY and FARTCOIN only kind of do, and AXS is weaker. BEAM bounced 6% and looks capable of testing resistance. A green candle is a start, not a permission slip.
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