(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were firmer, as spot silver prices rallied late Tuesday, as lower oil prices and softer bond yields helped offset still-hawkish Federal Reserve expectations after last week’s divided policy hold. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,077.70 an ounce, up 0.57% on the session, while spot silver was trading at $59.450, up 2.39%.
The U.S. equity session closed with fresh records as lower crude prices, firm earnings and renewed AI-linked demand supported risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 136.02 points, or 1.8%, to 7,736.52, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 907.47 points, or 1.7%, to 54,085.88 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 671.10 points, or 2.6%, to 26,584.99. The Russell 2000 added 55.07 points, or 1.8%, to 3,036.98.
European equities also finished stronger, with the FTSE 100 up 0.20% at 10,879.38, Germany’s DAX up 0.77% at 26,202.35, France’s CAC 40 up 0.61% at 8,666.63 and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.94% at 6,486.70. The earlier European session was led by technology, defense and mining shares, while energy names lagged as crude sold off.
The latest positioning picture remains defined by a split Fed signal. The July 29 FOMC decision held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference reinforced the view that the Fed is willing to let financial markets price a tighter stance, rather than deliver detailed forward guidance. Since then, strong July manufacturing data, with ISM at 55.6 versus 53.3 in June, has kept the growth-and-inflation side of the trade alive. Tuesday’s JOLTS release, with job openings little changed at 7.4 million and the openings rate at 4.4%, added enough labor-market softness to support bonds. Short-rate pricing still leaned toward further tightening, but falling oil prices reduced the urgency of a multi-hike scenario, with two-year yields near 4.20% and the 10-year yield near 4.62% to 4.64% late in the session.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a headline-driven risk premium, not a resolved de-escalation. U.S. and Qatari officials described progress toward a mechanism that could improve traffic through the strait, while no final agreement had been reached and shipping disruptions had not normalized. Brent crude fell 5.3% to settle near $79.36 a barrel and Nymex WTI dropped 5.7% to $75.77 as traders marked down the probability of a near-term supply shock. The move helped ease inflation pressure at the margin, supported Treasuries and gave gold a second channel of support through lower yields, even as reduced geopolitical stress limited safe-haven urgency.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $75.77 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $79.36. The U.S. dollar index was little changed to firmer near the 100 area. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,180.00 to $4,200.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,350.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below the $4,020.00 to $4,040.00 support zone, with deeper downside targets at $3,950.00 and then $3,930.00. First resistance is seen at $4,100.00 and then at $4,180.00. First support is seen at $4,040.00 and then at $4,020.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.00 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day moving average at $62.91 and then $65.00 to $66.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below the $56.00 to $57.00 support zone. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $62.00. Next support is seen at $57.00 and then at $56.00.
