The selloff is painful, but my focus is on recognizing opportunities rather than treating every bearish signal as a changed macro thesis. Developing daily signals, conditional support tests and separate dominance ratios need to retain their own meanings.
Binance says its preliminary investigation points to a security incident with estimated total impact around $6.3 billion and about $3 billion frozen on-chain. It says it will cover losses and user funds are safe. These are Binance's initial estimates and assurances, not final audited losses; the technical investigation remains open. Binance official preliminary update.
Bitcoin approaches a reset while the Slow-line dip remains conditional
BTC almost went oversold on daily RSI in my update. I am hoping for that reset because it would set up a glorious reversal, not an immediate one. A daily Open Short is developing today, a bearish trend confirmation if completed; it is not a finished daily signal. The Slow line keeps this decline counter-trend in my view. If BTC drops to the Slow line at $71k, then we buy the dip. I have not called a fill at $71k.
Ethereum confirms a strong bearish counter-trend, not a changed macro thesis
ETH closed below newly established TBO Support on Thursday, confirming a strong bearish counter-trend. Its Slow line continues upward, currently around 2,136, where I see a fantastic dip-buying price. In my read, daily RSI is oversold again with a higher RSI low against a lower price low, a bullish divergence. There is also a fair-value gap below $2k, but I honestly do not think it will fill. Any price below the daily Cloud looks overextended and attractive to me for buying the dip; that does not remove downside risk.
Stablecoin dominance frames the conditional reversal scenario
Combined stablecoin dominance is rising on the dip, but this is a counter-trend rally while its daily Slow line remains strongly bearish. Another quick BTC drop would take combined stablecoin dominance toward its weekly Fast line around 10.10%, satisfying the previous weekly TBO Close Long. In that scenario, as in 2023, that would be our major buy-the-dip moment and the market starts a V-shaped recovery to higher highs. The tag and recovery have not happened merely because I describe them. Dominance is market share, not spot price or measured cash flow. Completing that Close Long is not me selling.
OTHERS dominance improves even as market-cap charts print bearish signals
BTC.D failed to close above TBO Resistance Thursday and is working on a TBT Bearish Divergence. OTHERS.D is pushing above its bull flag toward the Cloud top. Once it confirms a close above resistance and the Cloud, we will be in very bullish shape for ALTs to pump higher, even during a market dump. That close is still a condition. TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D are both bearish and oversold, with confirmed Open Shorts or drops to Support between them. Separately, market-cap TOTALES printed an Open Short: if it falls to Slow, that is my universal buy-the-dip signal. TOTALE50 wicked to the Cloud bottom; TOTALE100 is below Cloud and oversold. OTHERS confirmed an Open Short but is far from strong bearish. TOTAL3ESBTC is green and likely to push into Cloud; OTHERS/BTC is working on bullish divergence. These are separate ratios, market caps and dominance charts, not interchangeable price calls.
Dollar retreat contrasts with equity volatility and metals weakness
After rejection at TBO Resistance, DXY is dropping into the Cloud and working on a second TBT Bearish Divergence. Next stop in my outlook is the Cloud bottom, with a positive effect for the Euro and yen; the yen chart is already dropping below Cloud into strong bearish mode. S&P futures is working on an Open Short but remains macro bullish; the Russell 2000 printed a Close Short and FANG printed an Open Short. Irrationally oversold stock moments are huge dip-buying opportunities to me, not generational long entries. NVDA's weekly Mid-Fast and Mid-Slow references are 205 and 200; my confidence to buy any dip depends on its weekly Slow continuing to angle up strongly. I wondered whether VIX could open above 22; that is not an observed opening value. Oil is breaking short-term overhead resistance; gold is dropping to Support. Silver is likely heading to its weekly Slow at 44.82. PAXG/BTC printed a daily Close Short, while its untagged weekly Close Long remains a prospective secondary BTC-bottom confirmation once tagged.
Selective ALT opportunities remain the conclusion, not a blanket bearish call
SOL cracked support and went oversold on RSI: buy the dip. XRP is at the Cloud bottom and looks irrationally oversold to me. TRX pumped 18%; HYPE pumped to TBO Resistance at 97.990, illustrating why I buy dips on spot. INJ lost Support and printed a Close Long, but I do not expect a drop to Slow. VET is below Cloud and oversold; PYTH lost the 0.236 Fib and printed Close Long, yet I still think the dip is worth buying. FLR is almost at Support, GRASS at the 0.382 Fib after Close Long, and FET and VIRTUAL are heading toward historical accumulation zones. PENDLE fell below Slow and Cloud; LDO did too and is oversold for the first time since early August; OP follows that context. MON, EIGEN, JASMY, AXS and FARTCOIN are at Support; BP's third Close Long deserves caution. IMX Support is still lower at 0.1001, not already tagged. W wicked to Slow, WAL and ATH sit at Cloud bottoms, 1INCH is extremely oversold and extended from Fast, and FLOW made a new low while extremely oversold. Write today in your journal: days like this teach us to recognize opportunities, not to assume every dip has already reversed.
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