(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were modestly firmer and spot silver prices were sharply higher in late U.S. trading Tuesday, as lower oil prices eased the immediate inflation shock from the Strait of Hormuz while Treasury yields and a firm U.S. dollar kept gold’s upside contained. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,356.80 an ounce, up 0.32% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $66.970, up 1.63%.
U.S. equities finished mixed after Monday’s AI-led rally. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06 point, less than 0.1%, to 7,764.64, leaving the benchmark about 0.4% below its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 185.14 points, or 0.4%, to 51,863.69. The Nasdaq Composite rose 122.18 points, or 0.5%, to 27,244.28, a record close, while the Russell 2000 gained 14.56 points, or 0.5%, to 2,889.92.
European markets were mixed to slightly firmer, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up 0.13% at 642.78. Germany’s DAX ended nearly flat, up 0.02% at 25,578.85, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.20% to 8,154.91. The U.K. FTSE 100 fell 0.29% to 10,708.33, and Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 0.53% to 52,371.54.
Market positioning remains centered on whether the Fed’s September rate increase was a one-off adjustment or the start of a renewed tightening phase. Futures pricing put the probability of an October 25-basis-point hike near 53.1% earlier in the session, while the dollar index was near 100.48 and the 10-year Treasury yield remained near the 5.0% area. The next tests are Wednesday’s September flash U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET, Thursday’s weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET and Friday’s August durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET and final September consumer sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET. Stronger activity or firmer price components would keep pressure on gold through yields and the dollar, while softer data would give bullion a clearer path to extend above the mid-$4,300s.
The Strait of Hormuz risk premium eased but did not disappear. Iran signaled it could reopen Gulf shipping within days if the U.S. lifts pressure and a blockade on Iranian ports, while Saudi Arabia moved to restore exports through its East-West Pipeline and Yanbu port. Brent crude briefly fell below $98 before settling near $99.25 a barrel, reducing the near-term inflation impulse that had supported gold earlier in the conflict. The shift helped equities and silver, but gold’s safe-haven bid was partly offset by the market’s view that even lower oil does not remove the Fed’s inflation problem.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near the low-$90s a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $99.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.0% area. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,393.68 to $4,400.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,480.00 and then $4,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,333.11, with deeper downside targets at $4,300.00 and then the $4,160.00 to $4,180.00 range. First resistance is seen at $4,393.68 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at $4,333.11 and then at $4,300.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $67.231 to $68.000 area, with a move above that zone targeting $70.000 and then the psychologically important $71.000 area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $65.898, with deeper downside targets at the 50-day moving average near $63.280 and then the $61.000 to $62.000 zone. First resistance is seen at $67.231 and then at $68.000. Next support is seen at $65.898 and then at $63.280.
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