(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were sharply lower and spot silver prices were under heavy pressure in late U.S. trading Monday, as a renewed Strait of Hormuz risk premium lifted oil prices, pushed Treasury yields higher and reinforced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,131.00 an ounce, down about 3.8% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $61.020, down about 5.0%.
North American equities closed lower as the yield shock offset support from selected AI names. The S&P 500 fell 59.72 points, or 0.8%, to 7,683.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 347.11 points, or 0.7%, to 51,481.51. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 248.34 points, or 0.9%, to 26,820.38, while the Russell 2000 fell 19.64 points, or 0.7%, to 2,817.91.
European equities were flat to lower as oil-and-gas strength offset weakness in basic resources and telecoms. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed flat at 638.68. Germany’s DAX fell 0.13% to 25,374.42, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.04% to 8,078, the U.K. FTSE 100 declined 0.10% to 10,684.88 and Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 0.21% to 51,759.90.
Market positioning remains dominated by higher oil, higher yields and a heavier Fed path. Traders priced roughly a 70% chance of an October quarter-point hike, while the dollar index held near 101.16 and the 10-year Treasury yield reached the 5.23% area, its highest level since 2007. The next data points are JOLTS job openings Tuesday, August personal income and PCE inflation Wednesday, ADP private payrolls Wednesday, ISM manufacturing Thursday and the September employment report Friday. Stronger inflation or labor-market data would keep the rates channel pointed against gold, while softer prints would test whether the selloff has already priced enough tightening risk.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains the main geopolitical driver for oil and the main indirect pressure point for gold. Oil jumped more than $4 a barrel in early trade after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal that would have reopened the strait, then pared gains after Qatari mediators signaled separate talks with U.S. and Iranian officials. Brent settled up 96 cents, or 0.9%, at $105.28 a barrel, while WTI rose 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $92.60. The smaller settlement gain still leaves a wider Brent-WTI spread and a persistent shipping-risk premium, feeding inflation concerns and Treasury yields. For bullion, the geopolitical bid remains present, but Monday’s dominant channel was negative: higher oil lifted the expected Fed path and raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading near $92.60 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $105.28. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.2% area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and holding near a two-month high. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,199.00 to $4,223.90 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,244.00 and then $4,257.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,162.69, with deeper downside targets at $4,152.00 and then $4,128.00. First resistance is seen at $4,199.00 and then at $4,223.90. First support is seen at $4,162.69 and then at $4,152.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $62.350 to $63.150 area, with a move above that zone targeting $64.080 and then $64.820. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.890, with deeper downside targets at $60.830 and then the psychologically important $60.000 area. First resistance is seen at $62.350 and then at $63.150. Next support is seen at $60.890 and then at $60.830.
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