(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices were lower in late U.S. trading Friday, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls report cut October Fed-hike odds but failed to break the broader pressure from elevated Treasury yields, a firm dollar and lingering oil-market risk. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,142.00 an ounce, down 0.83% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $60.230, down 1.04%.
North American equities closed higher as softer labor data reduced fears of an imminent Fed rate hike. The S&P 500 rose 56.27 points, or 0.7%, to 7,722.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 250.40 points, or 0.5%, to 51,176.96. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 319.27 points, or 1.2%, to 27,190.86, while the Russell 2000 added 26.27 points, or 0.9%, to 2,832.90.
European equities also recovered after Thursday’s bond-driven selloff. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7% to 630.95, Germany’s DAX gained 1.2% to 25,231.20 and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.8% to 7,897.19. The U.K. FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 10,461.95, while Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.5% to 50,483.21.
Market positioning turned sharply less hawkish at the front end after the September employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 29,000, below expectations near 90,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% from a year earlier, and July and August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs. October hike odds fell to roughly 22%, down from around 70% earlier in the week, but December tightening risk remained in the trade as the 10-year Treasury yield recovered from an initial drop to trade near the 5.25% area. The next rate-path tests are September CPI and PPI, energy prices and Fed commentary before the late-October policy decision. Softer inflation data would support gold by validating the payroll signal; a rebound in energy-driven inflation would keep the yield channel pointed against bullion.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a persistent energy-market risk, even as some immediate supply pressure eased. Oil prices fell after discussions around emergency crude and fuel stock releases and signs of recovering Middle East exports offset the risk premium from unresolved shipping and security threats. Brent crude traded near $101.23 a barrel, while WTI was near $90.70. Crude flows through the strait have recovered materially from the worst disruption, but the market is still pricing risk around tanker safety, regional military activity and the durability of any diplomatic channel. For gold, the impact remains mixed: lower crude reduces the inflation impulse behind yields and the dollar, while unresolved Hormuz risk keeps some defensive demand under bullion.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $90.70 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $101.23. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.25% area. The U.S. dollar index is lower on the session but still higher on the week. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,203.65 to $4,230.51 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,319.61 and then $4,327.50. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,149.83, with deeper downside targets at $4,110.87 and then $3,942.10. First resistance is seen at $4,149.83 and then at $4,171.46. First support is seen at $4,110.87 and then at $3,942.10.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.848 to $61.737 area, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day EMA near $64.632 and then the 200-day EMA near $65.447. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.258, with deeper downside targets at $60.000 and then $59.570. First resistance is seen at $60.258 and then at $60.848. Next support is seen at $60.000 and then at $59.570.
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