(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices were firmer in late U.S. trading Thursday, as bullion found support from easing October Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations while elevated Treasury yields and a firm U.S. dollar continued to limit upside. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,159.11 an ounce, up 0.10% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $60.980, up 0.18%.
North American equities finished modestly higher after another volatile session driven by sharp swings in the Treasury market. The S&P 500 rose 14.91 points, or 0.19%, to 7,666.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 20.51 points, or 0.04%, to 50,926.56. The Nasdaq Composite gained 10.53 points, or 0.04%, to 26,871.60, while the Russell 2000 advanced 9.76 points, or 0.35%, to 2,806.63. Wall Street recovered from early losses after Treasury yields backed away from fresh multi-decade highs during afternoon trading.
European equities closed sharply lower as another surge in global bond yields weighed on risk appetite. London's FTSE 100 fell about 1.7%, France's CAC 40 lost about 1.6%, Germany's DAX declined about 1.0%, and the pan-European STOXX 600 finished around 1.0% lower as banks and rate-sensitive sectors led the decline.
Market positioning remains centered on the divergence between easing near-term Fed expectations and stubbornly high long-term yields. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, below consensus expectations, reinforcing evidence that the labor market remains resilient ahead of Friday's September employment report. Meanwhile, Wednesday's softer PCE inflation data continues to restrain October Fed tightening expectations, which remain well below last week's levels. Treasury yields, however, continue to dominate cross-asset pricing, with the benchmark 10-year note briefly reaching its highest level in more than two decades before retreating later in the session. This afternoon's ISM manufacturing report showed factory activity eased only marginally while input prices strengthened, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures remain persistent. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET is now the week's key event. A stronger-than-expected employment report would likely reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressure gold through yields and the dollar, while weaker payroll growth would strengthen expectations that the Fed can remain on hold.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains an important source of underlying market uncertainty, although the immediate oil-market risk premium eased during Thursday's session. Recovering Gulf crude exports and a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories helped push Brent crude back below the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level. Diplomatic contacts between U.S., Iranian and Qatari officials continue, but no breakthrough has been reported regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz or broader sanctions issues. Lower oil prices reduce immediate inflation pressure, providing modest support for gold, although the unresolved geopolitical backdrop continues to underpin safe-haven demand across commodity markets.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $90.99 a barrel, while Brent crude is trading just below $100.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.30% area after retreating from an intraday multi-decade high. The U.S. dollar index is firm. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,190.00 to $4,210.63 resistance, with a sustained move targeting $4,238.00 and then $4,254.44. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,136.44, with deeper downside targets at $4,112.00 and then $4,073.00. First resistance is seen at $4,190.00 and then at $4,210.63. First support is seen at $4,136.44 and then at $4,112.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $61.720 to $62.069 resistance, with a move above that zone targeting $62.834 and then the 50-day moving average near $63.890. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.639, with deeper downside targets at $59.960 and then $58.940. First resistance is seen at $61.720 and then at $62.069. Next support is seen at $60.639 and then at $59.960.
See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.
