Introduction
As gold traders tune into global markets on Thursday, ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday closure – gold prices are maintaining a resilient stance near $4,149.46 per ounce in spot trading (XAU/USD). This represents a modest 0.32% dip from yesterday's close but underscores a robust 4.99% monthly gain amid supportive macro conditions. The yellow metal's year-to-date surge of 57.25% continues to reflect its status as a premier safe-haven asset, drawing steady interest from investors. And broader regional demand dynamics.
Macro Tailwinds Align for Gold's Sustained Strength
Gold's current stability stems from a confluence of favourable economic and geopolitical factors, positioning it firmly within a macro-protective cycle. Unlike crisis driven spikes, this rally is anchored in structural shifts, including anticipated U.S. monetary easing and a de-escalation in global tensions that still leaves room for hedging.
Dovish Federal Reserve Path Solidifies
Recent U.S. economic data this week has amplified expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the CME Fed Watch Tool now indicating an 83% probability for December– up sharply from 30% just last week. Softer retail sales growth and the weakest consumer confidence reading since April signal cooling momentum in the world's largest economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in largely in line, confirming moderating pipeline inflation and reducing hawkish pressures.
Speculation around Kevin Hassett's potential appointment as Fed Chair – a dovish figure aligned with pro-growth policies – adds further fuel. Upcoming durable goods orders and jobless claims, due next week, could cement this bias if they disappoint. In this low-yield environment, gold thrives as a non-yielding hedge against eroding real returns, with weakening U.S. dollar dynamics (DXY down over 8% YTD) providing additional lift.
Geopolitical Easing with Lingering Caution
Progress in U.S.-led peace talks on Ukraine, including President Trump's "nearly complete" negotiations and potential summits involving Putin and Zelensky, has tempered immediate escalation risks. Influential mediator Steve Witkoe's involvement signals diplomatic momentum, allowing markets to trim extreme risk premiums without fully unwinding gold positions. Yet, unresolved flashpoints in the Middle East and U.S.- China trade frictions ensure a baseline of uncertainty, sustaining central bank gold buying at record paces – over 900 tonnes added globally in 2025 alone, led by emerging markets like China and India.
Inflation Hedge and Seasonal Demand Surge
Persistent inflationary pressures above the Fed's 2% target, coupled with economic fatigue, reinforce gold's role as an inflation hedge gold staple. ETF inflows have hit $26 billion YTD, while physical demand from India's wedding season and China's Lunar New Year preparations – keeps upward pressure intact. Local premiums in Dubai reflect this, with 24K gold retailing near AED 490 per gram amid festive stockpiling.
Technical Setup: Momentum Builds Toward Year-End Targets
Gold's chart exudes bullish conviction, with prices consolidating above the key $4,150 psychological level after a decisive breakout. The chart below shows important price level which traders need to pay close attention to.
Gold price chart: MH Markets Dubai
Looking ahead, moderate volatility is anticipated post-Thanksgiving, with U.S. holiday closures on November 27 limiting action. Yet, as nonfarm payrolls and ISM Services PMI loom next week, gold's path appears upward-tilted. Why gold price is rising 2025 boils down to these intertwined forces: easing monetary policy, tempered geopolitics, and enduring safe-haven allure. In this environment, gold technical analysis next target strategies highlight $4,200 as the immediate milestone, supported by central bank gold buying and inflation hedge gold narratives. As 2025 draws to a close, the precious metal's decoupling from traditional rate norms positions it for further gains.