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Next week’s CPI, PPI, retail sales, and consumer sentiment could cement rate cuts and boost gold 

WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Both Federal Reserve vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, as well as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as the next chair of the U.S. central bank, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing two administration officials.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading a search for a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom President Donald Trump has pushed all year, in vain, to cut rates. Candidates previously known to be on his list include National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, with the list expanded recently to also encompass St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush.Hassett, Warsh, Waller and Bowman have all signaled support for lower rates, with Waller and Bowman both dissenting in July against the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged.Logan, by contrast, has consistently been more hawkish, most recently signaling her skepticism about lowering interest rates while inflation remains elevated. Jefferson has never given any indication of differences between his and Powell's policy views.Reporting by Jasper Ward; Editing by Nia Williams

Fed vice chairs, Dallas Fed president being considered for next chair, Bloomberg reports

NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar firmed across the board on Monday, a day before the release of a U.S. inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month.The dollar index was up 0.3% at 98.52 after last week's 0.4% fall. Against the yen, the U.S. currency traded at 148.085 , up 0.2%. Japanese markets were closed on Monday for the Mountain Day holiday. The euro was down 0.3% at $1.16123, while sterling was down 0.2% at $1.34335. "The buck is trading a little firmer against all peers, though the moves are overall modest in nature," said Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London."A very modest hawkish repricing of Fed policy expectations appears to be helping the move along, likely driven by participants squaring up some positions ahead of the risk that tomorrow's CPI print presents," he said.The dollar softened last week as investors adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Fed after soft data on U.S. jobs and manufacturing.Fed officials have sounded increasingly uneasy about the labor market, signaling their openness to a rate cut as soon as September.Cooling inflation could cement bets for a cut next month, but if signs emerge that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are fuelling price rises, that might keep the Fed on hold for now."It's important to note ahead of tomorrow's data that the bar for a hawkish surprise is higher," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.Pesole added that a 0.3% monthly rise in core CPI would give the Fed room to lower interest rates, given the deterioration in the labor market.Economists polled by Reuters expect core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, pushing the annual rate higher to 3%.Money market traders are pricing in around a 90% chance of a rate cut next month, while 58 basis points of easing are priced in by year-end, implying two quarter-point cuts and around a one-in-three chance of a third.The dollar was little swayed by Trump signing an executive order extending a pause in sharply higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days, a move that some market participants said was expected.With the United States and China seeking to close a deal averting triple-digit goods tariffs, a U.S. official told Reuters that chip makers Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and AMD (AMD.O), opens new tab had agreed to allocate 15% of China sales revenues to the U.S. government, aiming to secure export licences for semiconductors.The Australian dollar fetched $0.6515 , trading down 0.2% ahead of a rate decision on Tuesday, in which it is widely expected that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60%, after second-quarter inflation came in weaker than expected and the jobless rate hit a 3-1/2-year high.Cryptocurrencies rose, with bitcoin up 1.1% at $119,679, not far from its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after Trump's executive order on Thursday freed up cryptocurrency holdings in U.S. retirement accounts.Ether rose 1.9% to $4,298.23, its highest since December 2021.Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk and Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Kirsten Donovan and Marguerita Choy

Dollar edges up with US inflation report on tap

TORONTO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened to a six-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as the greenback notched broad-based gains ahead of a key U.S. inflation report this week and after speculators raised their bearish bets on the loonie to a two-month high.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3784 per U.S. dollar, or 72.55 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since last Tuesday at 1.3795. The U.S. dollar (.DXY), rose against a basket of major currencies, a day before the deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal and the release of U.S. consumer price index data that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month."CAD remains tethered to USD direction," Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco, said in a note.Recent Canadian data has raised expectations for a Bank of Canada interest rate cut, but slow summer trading has limited the impact on the currency, Sahota said.Canada's economy shed 40,800 jobs in July, giving back some of the substantial gains seen in the prior month, data on Friday showed. Investors see a 36% chance the BoC cuts rates at its next policy decision on September 17, up from 17% at the start of the month. Advertisement · Scroll to continueAlso on Friday, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that net short positions in the Canadian dollar have increased to 79,420 contracts, the highest since June, from 76,433 in the prior week.The price of oil clawed back some of last week's steep decline, rising 0.5% to $64.18 a barrel. Oil is one of Canada's major exports.Canadian bond yields edged lower across the curve. The 10-year was down nearly one basis point at 3.376%, after earlier touching its lowest level since July 4 at 3.353%.Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Alex Richardson

Canadian dollar hits a six-day low ahead of pivotal US inflation data

Aug 11 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Monday as investors awaited White House clarification regarding potential U.S. tariffs on imported gold bars as well as a U.S. inflation report that could provide an indication of the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 2.4% to $3,407.60 an ounce by 12:15 p.m. EDT (1615 GMT). Prices hit a record high on Friday after reports that Washington may place the most widely traded gold bullion bars in the United States under country-specific import tariffs. Later on Friday, an official told Reuters that the White House intended to issue an executive order in the near future "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars and other specialty products."The market initially rallied on uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, but is now experiencing nervous liquidation as participants await further clarity from the White House," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.Spot gold was down 1.5% at $3,347.49.On the data front, U.S. consumer price data is due out on Tuesday, followed by producer price data on Thursday."Inflation data will be especially important following the weak jobs report. If this week's inflation figures come in higher than expected, it could give the Fed a reason to pause the anticipated rate cut in September, which would be bearish for gold prices," Wyckoff added.A recent weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has increased traders' bets for a Fed rate cut in September.Trade negotiations were also in the spotlight as the August 12 deadline set by President Donald Trump for a U.S.-China deal approached.Meanwhile, Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.Gold tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty and in a low-interest rate environment.Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.5% to $37.75, platinum dipped 0.4% at $1,326.35 and palladium rose 2.5% to $1,154.00.Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier

Gold falls as markets await clarification on tariffs, inflation data

Aug 11 (Reuters) - Nvidia (NVDA.O), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), have agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from sales to China of certain advanced computer chips, a U.S. official said on Sunday, in an unusual move likely to faze American companies.The deal is extremely rare for the U.S. and marks President Donald Trump's latest intervention in corporate decision-making, after pressuring executives to invest in American manufacturing and demanding new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign over ties to Chinese companies.Analysts said the levy may hit margins at the chipmakers and set a precedent for Washington to tax critical U.S. exports, potentially extending beyond semiconductors.Trump's administration halted sales of Nvidia's H20 chips to China in April, but the company said last month it had won clearance to resume shipments and hoped to start deliveries soon.The Commerce Department has started issuing licenses for the sale of H20 chips to China, another U.S. official said on Friday. Both the U.S. officials declined to named because details have not been made public.The China curbs are expected to cost Nvidia and AMD billions of dollars in revenue, and successive U.S. administrations have sought in recent years to limit Beijing's access to cutting-edge chips that could bolster China's military.Washington does not feel the sale of H20 and equivalent chips compromises national security, said the first U.S. official.The official did not know when or how the agreement with the chip companies would be implemented, but said the administration would be in compliance with the law.The U.S. Constitution prohibits Congress from laying taxes and duties on articles exported from any state. The Export Clause applies to taxes and duties, not user fees.When asked if Nvidia had agreed to pay 15% of revenues to the U.S., a company spokesperson said: "We follow rules the U.S. government sets for our participation in worldwide markets.""While we haven't shipped H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will let America compete in China and worldwide," the spokesperson added.A spokesperson for AMD said the U.S. approved its applications to export some AI processors to China, but did not directly address the revenue-sharing agreement and said the company's business adheres to all U.S. export controls.The U.S. Commerce Department did not immediately comment.China's foreign ministry said the country has repeatedly stated its position on U.S. chip exports. The ministry has previously accused Washington of using technology and trade measures to "maliciously contain and suppress China."The Financial Times, which first reported the development, said the chip firms agreed to the arrangement as a condition for obtaining the export licenses for their semiconductors, including AMD's MI308 chips. It added that the Trump administration had yet to determine how to use the money."The Chinese market is significant for both these companies so even if they have to give up a bit of the money, they would otherwise make it looks like a logical move on paper," AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said.'SLIPPERY SLOPE'Still, analysts and experts questioned the logic of resuming sales if the chips could pose a national security risk."Decisions on export licenses should be determined by national security considerations and the tradeoffs of U.S. policy goals, not a revenue-creating possibility," said Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, an independent research institution."What it ends up creating is an incentive to control things, to then extract a payment, rather than controlling things because we're actually concerned about the risk to national security."U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last month the planned resumption of sales of the AI chips was part of U.S. negotiations with China to get rare earths and described the H20 as Nvidia's "fourth-best chip" in an interview with CNBC.He said it was in U.S. interests for Chinese firms to use American technology, even if the most advanced chips remained barred, to keep them on a U.S. "tech stack".Some elements of Trump's trade policy are already facing legal scrutiny, with a federal appeals panel skeptical of his claim that a 1977 law, traditionally used to sanction enemies or freeze assets, also empowered him to impose tariffs."We aren't sure we like the precedent this sets," Bernstein analysts said of the revenue-share deal. "Will it stop with Chinese AI? Will it stop with controlled products? Will other companies be required to pay to sell into the region?""It feels like a slippery slope to us."The analysts estimated the deal would cut gross margins on the China-bound processors by 5 to 15 percentage points, shaving about a point from Nvidia and AMD's overall margins.Nvidia generated $17 billion in revenue from China in the fiscal year ending January 26, representing 13% of total sales. AMD reported $6.2 billion in China revenue for 2024, accounting for 24% of total revenue.Nvidia has warned a China sales halt for H20 chips could cut $8 billion from July-quarter revenue, while AMD has projected a $1.5 billion annual hit from the curbs.Reporting by Karen Freifeld Additional reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa, Yazhini MV and Gnaneshwar Rajan in Bengaluru, Liam Mo and Che Pan in Beijing. Editing by Jamie Freed, Miyoung Kim, Mark Potter and Devika Syamnath

Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenue to US, official says

NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The new White House order directing regulators to expand access to alternative investments in 401(k) plans, like crypto or privately owned companies adds a new layer of risk to the retirement portfolios for ordinary investors that they may not fully understand, investment professionals say."This is brand new; none of it has been stress-tested yet" in a market shock or long-term selloff, said Christopher Bailey, director of retirement, at Cerulli Associates, an asset management research firm. "There are liquidity concerns, issues around fees, among others." While industry advocates and the Trump administration say investments in private equity, crypto or privately held companies like ChatGPT developer OpenAI or Elon Musk's SpaceX hold the promise of greater returns, critics say the investments are inherently riskier, lack the same disclosures and carry higher fees than traditional retirement plans."I don’t think people are talking enough about the potential for higher fees," said Philitsa Hanson, head of product, equity and fund administration, Allvue Systems, a software and solutions provider for private asset managers. The executive order, she said, "raises more questions than answers. Someone will need to be very thoughtful about how these types of assets can be incorporated" into 401(k) plans.Private equity and other alternative asset funds have increasingly been raising capital from wealthy individuals but are traditionally designed for institutional investors and typically include layers of fees. Private equity, for instance, has long had the "2 and 20" structure: managers collect a 2% overall fee, as well as 20% of any gains. In contrast, the mutual funds that today make up the lion's share of 401(k) plan assets offer fees that average a mere 0.26%, according to the Investment Company Institute.Dmitriy Katsnelson, deputy chief investment officer at Wealthspire Advisors, which manages $30 billion for affluent and high net worth individuals and families, notes that if the executive order triggers a rapid and significant change in the menu of investment plans open to investors, that would reverse the trend of the last few decades."It's been all about cutting fees, doing no harm," Katsnelson said. "It's going to take a while for people to come up with a framework to make this work and think about the risks."Alternative asset managers will likely need to come up with new products with lower fees, greater liquidity and more transparency if they want to tap into the trillions of dollars and 90 million investors in employer-sponsored retirement plans.Jason Kephart, an analyst at Morningstar, said the fees for some alternative investments aren't clearly spelled out, some even have to be deciphered from footnotes.They "might be even underrepresenting the actual cost to the end investor, and I have a hard time seeing how plan sponsors are going to get comfortable with that," he said."I think there is going to be more light shed on all these fees and exactly where they are and make it transparent."Under the current system, investors can also monitor fluctuations in their portfolio's performance on a daily basis and understand precisely what is contributing to those results, Hanson said. That won't be so easy for investments that aren't traded on open exchanges. "Private equity, private assets are the opposite," said Allvue's Hanson. "You’re asking systems designed for daily trades to support illiquid and sometimes manually priced assets. There’s a fundamental mismatch there.”That creates an obligation on the part of asset managers and plan sponsors to increase their outreach and education efforts, suggests Cerulli's Bailey. A typical retirement fund investor "is not sitting there thinking about optimizing their portfolio" and considering the impact of adding private assets to the mix on their risk or potential return, he said.Blackstone President and Chief Operating Officer Jon Gray recently told analysts that private assets are more appropriate for younger investors that have a longer investing horizon than for someone nearing retirement.One test case for the legal risks of putting retirement nest eggs in private markets has played out at chipmaker Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab, where employees brought a lawsuit over two retirement plans that included investments in hedge funds, private equity and commodities.An appeals court finally dismissed the complaint after seven years of court battles this year but lawyers at Debevoise &amp; Plimpton said that asset managers and plan sponsors generally don't have the resources to manage multi-year litigation. Regulators will have to give the industry some legal protection from investor lawsuits to make good on Trump's plan, they said.Reporting by Suzanne McGee and Isla Binnie in New York. Editing by Dawn Kopecki and Aurora Ellis

Trump's 401(k) order offers retirement savers crypto, private assets, but also higher fees and more risk

Aug 11 (Reuters) - European shares ticked lower on Monday, as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of an eventful week packed with tariff negotiations and ending with talks between the U.S. and Russia on the war in Ukraine.The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), closed 0.1% lower, retreating from gains earlier in the day, but still hovering near its highest level since July 31.Make sense of the latest ESG trends affecting companies and governments with the Reuters Sustainable Switch newsletter. Sign up here. Investors will be bracing for the summit on Friday in Alaska, where Kyiv fears Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump may try to dictate terms for ending the 3-1/2-year war.A German government spokesperson said, however, that European leaders will hold a virtual meeting with Trump ahead of the summit, after they backed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to take part in the talks.Hopes of a peace deal weighed on German defence companies, with Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE), dropping 4.6%, while Renk (R3NK.DE), fell 1.6%.Germany's benchmark index (.GDAXI), slipped 0.4%, while the broader aerospace and defence index (.SXPARO), was off 1.1%, after hitting an over one-month low in the session."The provision of defence equipment has largely shifted over the last few months, Europe is now providing a lot more of the defence to Ukraine," said Craig Cameron, portfolio manager and research analyst at Templeton Global Equity Group, on the impact of a potential peace deal on European defence firms.A 29.6% plunge in Danish wind farm developer Orsted (ORSTED.CO), after it unveiled a 60-billion-crown ($9.4 billion) rights issue also weighed on stocks.The stock hit a record low and was the biggest decliner on the STOXX 600.Meanwhile, the August 12 deadline for a deal between the U.S. and China looms, with markets expecting a deadline extension and a deal that would avoid imposing triple-digit tariffs on each other's goods.Despite concerns about Trump's tariffs, a strong U.S. earnings season driven by AI optimism, and expectations of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve have pushed U.S. stocks to record highs, dimming the appeal of European equities that were outperforming U.S. peers in the first half of the year."The story (has) shifted back to, in particular, the U.S. as tariff deals were negotiated lower and companies like Nvidia and Microsoft have really driven the market higher," said Cameron.Northern Data (NB2.DE), dropped 19.2% after U.S. video platform and cloud services provider Rumble (RUM.O), said it was considering an offer of about $1.17 billion for the German AI cloud group.Novartis (NOVN.S), climbed 2.1% after the Swiss pharmaceutical company said its Sjogren's disease treatment, Ianalumab, met the primary endpoint in a late-stage trial.Reporting by Sruthi Shankar, Purvi Agarwal and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Harikrishnan Nair and Ed Osmond

European shares start pivotal week lower, Russia-US summit in focus

NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Global equity markets edged lower in a choppy session while long-dated U.S. Treasuries fell on Monday, as investors braced for a week packed with closely-watched developments on trade and geopolitics in addition to key U.S. economic data.A U.S. tariff deadline on China, due to expire on Tuesday, is expected to be extended again, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the Ukraine war.On Wall Street, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index and the Dow were trading slightly lower, while the Nasdaq was down. Energy and materials stocks were driving losses while healthcare and consumer discretionary shares were making gains.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), fell 0.33%, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), fell 0.02% to 6,390.92 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), rose 0.11%.In Europe, the STOXX 600 (.STOXX), index fell 0.07%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS), was down 0.11% to 940.16, trading near its all-time record high reached in July."At the surface level the market is flat and calm and it looks like we are in wait-and-see mode to what the economic data will we are going to get tomorrow; all eyes on the CPI," Wasif Latif, chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners in New Jersey, said. the breakdown within the market, you're getting a little bit more of a selloff."The main economic release this week will be U.S. consumer prices on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the impact of tariffs to help nudge the core up 0.3% to an annual pace of 3% and away from the Federal Reserve target of 2%.An upside surprise would challenge market wagers for a September rate cut, though analysts assume it would have to be a very high number given that a downward turn in payrolls is now dominating the outlook.Markets imply around a 90% probability of a September easing, and at least one more cut by year-end.The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1 basis point to 4.273%, while the 30-year bond yield fell 1.7 basis points to 4.8373%.Trump having repeatedly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates at recent meetings, and markets are eyeing who will succeed current chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.This, said Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, meant that the dollar's reaction to the CPI data would not be straightforward.If the figure indicated higher U.S. tariff price pressures, "that could support the stagflation narrative, and to the dollar's detriment", he said, adding that this would also go against the view of some policymakers that tariffs were not causing prices to increase."If, however, softer U.S. CPI readings materialise, including the core goods figures, this would likely challenge the dollar too by supporting the case for further Fed easing, and perhaps see greater criticism from the U.S. administration towards Fed Chair Powell."The dollar strengthened 0.2% to 148.01 against the Japanese yen and was up 0.59% to 0.813 against the Swiss franc . The euro was down 0.32% against the dollar at $1.1602. The dollar index rose 0.37% to 98.59.The Australian dollar eased 0.26% to $0.6507 ahead of a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely expected to back a rate cut. It stunned markets in July by skipping an easing of policy to await more inflation data.Gold prices fell 1.53% to $3,346/58 an ounce after wild swings last week on reports that the U.S. would slap 39% tariffs on some gold bars, which are major exports of Switzerland.The White House has said it planned to issue an executive order clarifying the country's stance.Oil prices edged lower as investors looked ahead to the talks between Trump and Putin in Alaska on Friday, with U.S. policy towards Russian oil exports in focus.Brent fell 0.26% to $66.42 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 0.17% to $63.77.Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York, Wayne Cole in Sydney and Alun John in London; Editing by Sonali Paul, Gareth Jones, Alex Richardson and Andrew Heavens

Stock dip, US yields fall as markets brace for big week for trade, geopolitics

Copper miner Codelco received authorization from Chile’s labor inspector office to begin resuming certain operations at its flagship El Teniente copper mine, it said on Saturday, after more than a week of suspended operations following a deadly collapse that killed six workers.In a statement, Codelco said operations can resume in areas not affected by the July 31 collapse, including Pilar Norte, Panel Esmeralda, Pacifico Superior, Diablo Regimiento, and others, while sections such as Recursos Norte and Andesita remain suspended, pending further inspections.The decision allows Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, to partially restart activities at one of its key divisions, potentially easing operational disruptions.Chile’s mining regulator had given the green light for a partial restart on Friday evening, but the company needed the labor inspection office to sign off on the plan before resuming mining activity at a time when the miner grapples with production challenges.The El Teniente division is expected to announce its detailed plan for restarting operations along with safety measures to ensure compliance with labor authority requirements. Inspections in suspended areas will continue before a full restart can be authorized.El Teniente, which is more than a century old, spans more than 4,500 km (2,800 miles) of tunnels and underground galleries deep within the Andes mountains.(By Fabian Cambero; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Codelco gets approval from labor inspector to restart El Teniente operations

BENGALURU, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise modestly in coming months on tariff inflation worries and a deluge of new debt issuance even as short-term yields fall on renewed Federal Reserve rate cut bets, a Reuters survey of bond strategists showed.Both two-year and 10-year yields have fallen about 25 basis points since mid-July despite nearly half a trillion dollars of new Treasury securities expected to hit the market this quarter alone. The bulk of that yield decline followed big downward revisions to previous months' hiring data that led President Donald Trump to fire the Bureau of Labor statistics commissioner.A September Fed rate reduction is now all but certain after a long pause, with nearly two more priced into interest rate futures by year-end following concerns about the strength of the job market as well as mounting worries over future political interference in Fed policy."The market, as we've seen, has a tendency to take on board a downside surprise on growth and the labor market and run with additional expected cuts. We've been reluctant to take that on board. In fact, we've been pushing back on this," said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute."This is a world where the Fed will have an easing bias, will want and have the intent to cut, but will be constrained in its ability to deliver that because the inflation piece of the puzzle will not be cooperating as much," Boivin added.Although many market participants view the surge in U.S. tariffs to their highest since the Great Depression as a temporary boost to inflation, many others are concerned this will prove more persistent at a time when it is already well above the Fed's 2% target.Consumer price index (CPI) data due on Tuesday are expected to show a further rise in July.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, currently 4.27%, will edge up to 4.30% in three months and trade around there at end-January and in a year, medians from nearly 50 bond strategists in an August 6-11 Reuters poll showed.Policy-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury yields were expected to drop about 15 bps to 3.60% in six months and then to 3.50% in a year, the poll showed.STEEPER CURVEThat will further steepen the yield curve, widening the gap between those two yields from around 50 bps on Monday to 80 bps in a year."General uncertainty around trade policy and fiscal concerns and its impact on Treasury issuance might keep longer-term yields, like the 10-year yield, a little bit more elevated," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research."Add all that together, we'll probably see a steeper yield curve."Large Treasury debt sales in coming quarters are expected to prevent long-term yields from falling much, even if inflation rises less than expected. That in part, is a reflection of the higher "term premium" - compensation for holding long-term debt."Fiscal concerns could be more of an issue based on expectations for more and more Treasury issuance coming through the pipeline," said Martin."And the more debt we issue, the more buyers we need to find. You might need to see yields stay a little bit elevated to attract that marginal buyer."Those concerns have been compounded by growing doubts over the central bank’s independence, stoked by Trump’s barrage of attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the credibility of official U.S. statistics."We have been of the view long-term rates in the U.S. will be drifting up...There are forces at play that will require greater compensation to take duration risk in U.S. Treasuries over time, and that's going to continue to become apparent to investors," added BlackRock's Boivin.Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, agreed."Mathematically, we don't have a deficit reduction plan in place, and that's why the market and us as investors are forcing the issue by expecting more yield...A steepening yield curve is the high-conviction structural bet in our portfolio at the moment," he said.Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; Polling and analysis by Anant Chandak and Jaiganesh Mahesh; Editing by Ross Finley and Ed Osmond

Tariff inflation worry, debt deluge to prop up longer-term US Treasury yields: Reuters poll

Aug 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were mixed on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week and chip companies teetered after agreeing to share a portion of revenue from China sales with the U.S. under a trade policy shift from the Trump administration.Semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA.O), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), wobbled in early trading and were last marginally higher after a U.S. official told Reuters the companies had agreed to give the United States government 15% of revenue from sales of their advanced computer chips to China.Enabling semiconductor sales to China was an integral issue in the agreement Washington and Beijing signed earlier this year - which expires on Tuesday - and markets will keenly watch how the latest development impacts the relationship between the world's two largest economies."It's a good way for the United States government to increase its cash and income... but a lot of people are going to argue that this is the wrong way to go," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth."The Chinese government will probably use it as a point to argue that they need different chips because these particular chips might be susceptible to be reviewed by the Americans."Markets also sought clarity on the sector tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump had announced.At 09:52 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), fell 63.86 points, or 0.14%, to 44,109.53, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), gained 0.84 points, or 0.01%, to 6,390.29, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 21,451.44.Seven of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sectors slipped, while healthcare (.SPXHC), gained 0.6%, recovering some of the 5% declines it had logged so far this year.Traders took a step back after last week's rally helped the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), and the Nasdaq (.IXIC), log their strongest weekly performance in more than a month.Investors expect that the recent shakeup at the U.S. Federal Reserve and signs of labor market weakness could nudge the central bank into adopting a dovish monetary policy stance later this year, fueling much of the optimism.July's consumer inflation report is due on Tuesday and investors currently anticipate the Fed will lower borrowing costs by about 60 basis points by December, according to data compiled by LSEG.A better-than-feared earnings season brought some relief, with BofA's monthly fund manager survey showing that buying megacap stocks was again the most popular trade. Citigroup and UBS Global Research became the latest brokerages to raise their year-end targets for the benchmark S&amp;P 500.In earnings, Micron (MU.O), raised its forecast for fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted profit, sending its shares up 3.4%. The broader chips index (.SOX), added 1%.Intel (INTC.O), was up 4.9% after a report said CEO Lip-Bu Tan was expected to visit the White House. Trump had called for his removal last week.Trump is expected to meet Russia's President Vladimir Putin on Friday to try and negotiate an end to the war on Ukraine.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.42-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.33-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.The S&amp;P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and nine new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 48 new highs and 41 new lows.Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sanchayaita Roy in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai

Wall St mixed, chip majors in focus after China sales deal

BHP, the world’s largest miner, is leading a global consortium of steelmakers to explore carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) opportunities across Asia, project manager Hatch said on Monday.The group, comprising ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, JSW Steel, Hyundai Steel, Chevron Corp and Mitsui &amp; Co, will assess the deployment of CCUS in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as steelmaking.The one-year pre-feasibility study will focus on the potential to develop large-scale projects in Asia, which could repurpose or store captured carbon dioxide.While carbon capture technologies are relatively mature, they face cost and regulatory hurdles in many Asian markets.The consortium will evaluate how shared infra can cut costs, aggregate sufficient volumes of carbon dioxide for storage or reuse and distribute risks across companies.“By leveraging shared knowledge and resources with our partners, we are investing in support for innovative solutions, like the potential of CCUS, that we see as an essential part of decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking,” said Ben Ellis, BHP’s vice president of marketing sustainability.The study is expected to conclude at the end of 2026, with findings to be made public.(By Shivangi Lahiri; Editing by Sumana Nandy)

BHP leads global steelmakers group to study Asian carbon capture hubs

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