(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Friday, with silver sharply up. Safe-haven demand is featured amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Both metals continue to experience high daily price volatility. February gold was last up $51.00 at $4,393.00. March silver prices were up $2.692 at $73.29.
Trump warns Iran’s military not to attack Iranian protesters. President Trump said the U.S. will come to the rescue of Iranian protesters if they are attacked by Islamic Republic authorities. “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Trump said in a Truth Social post early Friday and as reported by Bloomberg. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” Iranian Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani responded on X, saying the U.S. “should be mindful of their soldiers’ safety.” The Trump post, around 3 a.m. Washington time and late morning in Iran, came after protests over a currency slump and soaring prices spread beyond Tehran to cities nationwide. The Iranian currency, the rial, hit a record low on Sunday and worsened an economic crisis in a country already beset by crippling international sanctions. Clashes have broken out between civilians and security forces and at least seven people have been killed in four cities in recent days, according to the AP.
Global stock markets starting 2026 on strong note. European equity markets extended their rally on the first trading day of 2026, with benchmark indices pushing to fresh record highs despite thin liquidity following the New Year holiday. Gains were led by defense stocks, underpinned by persistent geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased military spending across the region. The STOXX 50 climbed 1.1% to a new all-time high of 5,850 points, while the broader STOXX 600 rose 0.5% to a record 596 points. The FTSE 100 surged around 1% on the first trading day of 2026, breaking above the symbolic 10,000-point level for the first time in its history. The DAX in Frankfurt rose 0.4% to approach 24,600 in the first trading session of 2026, setting fresh record high. The Hong Kong Hang Seng surged 708 points, or 2.8%, to finish at a six-week high of 26,384 on Friday, rebounding from previous weakness amid widespread sector strength. Meantime, India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.67% firmer at 85,762 on Friday, an all-time high, supported by broad-based buying across most sectors. Looking ahead, global investors are searching for fresh catalysts, with close attention on the U.S. interest rate outlook, while geopolitical developments remain a key backdrop for market sentiment. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings today.
U.S. Treasury market remains flat. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury held around 4.10% on the first trading day of 2026, as Treasury market activity remained thin following the holidays. Investors continue to weigh the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path this year, focusing on upcoming economic releases, including December payrolls due next week, which could shed light on the U.S. labor market and its implications on interest rates. Earlier this week, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC’s December meeting showed growing openness among policymakers to easing monetary policy if inflation continues to cool. However, FOMC officials remained divided over the timing and scale of potential cuts. Traders are pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Markets are also watching Fed leadership, with President Trump set to name Powell’s successor early this year amid speculation of a dovish pick.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $57.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.11%.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,584.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,414.80 and then at $4,433.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,337.30 and then at $4,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
March silver futures see this week’s price action still appearing to have produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail, whereby the bulls run out of gas at the high and prices back way off to close near the daily low. Silver also saw a big and bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart Monday. The bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at Monday’s record high of $82.67. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $67.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $74.21 and then at $75.00. Next support is seen at $72.00 and then at the overnight low of $70.515. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
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