Bitcoin’s Daily Setup and Key Levels
Bitcoin’s daily chart confirmed a TBT Bullish Divergence on the recent candle close, an early sign of a developing bullish reversal rather than a definitive bottom. The plan remains for BTC to tag the daily TBO Fast line in the next few days before retracing toward $80,000—ideal for forming a double bottom—and potentially down to $74,500, which aligns with historical TBO support. Despite daily RSI exceeding its previous high, volume remains insufficient to validate the current bounce, and two recent hourly TBT Bearish Divergences underscore near-term resistance.
Ethereum’s Path and Overall Cryptocurrency Dominance
Ethereum is mirroring Bitcoin’s pattern: past approaches to its daily TBO Fast line have led to sharp declines, notably from $3,624 to $2,623. Should Bitcoin retrace, ETH targets include TBO support at $2,763 and the lower historical support near $2,188, though the latter is less likely in the near term. Combined stablecoin dominance has broken RSI support and produced a recent TBT Bearish Divergence—typically bullish signals—with the macro trend remaining constructive unless dominance dips into its daily TBO Cloud. A rapid BTC or ETH surge could precipitate this cloud test.
Market Cap Trends and Anticipated Pullback
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has risen over 1% in two days, often exerting downward pressure on altcoins. If both BTC.D and combined stablecoin dominance climb together, the signal is particularly bearish for alternative tokens. The Top 10 dominance chart remains in bullish consolidation, supported by four TBT Bullish Divergence clusters, pending clarity on Bitcoin’s pullback depth. Meanwhile, the total market cap (TOTALES) daily chart continues to respect resistance near 51.10; RSI failed to breach its prior high and two additional hourly TBT Bearish Divergences reinforce the likelihood of a broad retracement.
TradFi Markets and Commodities Commentary
U.S. equity markets are largely inactive due to holiday closures, though S&P futures trade at key resistance. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed above short-term supply but with declining volume, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng remain within bearish daily TBO clouds. Crude oil is technically bearish below its daily TBO Cloud despite potential for a volatility-driven breakout. Gold has edged higher, yet daily RSI is unlikely to surpass its prior peak; a successful breach would signal increased cross-asset volatility. Silver’s resurgence above $54 demonstrates relative strength.
Altcoin Technical Highlights
Among major altcoins, BNB printed a daily TBT Bullish Divergence but faces weakening volume, suggesting a retest of its TBO Fast line. XRP is forming an hourly TBT Bearish Divergence akin to late-October reversals. TRX’s daily TBT Bullish Divergence indicates potential upside, while AVAX and SHIB hover near their daily TBO Fast lines after bearish divergences. ZEC’s daily TBO Close Long pattern presents a short opportunity near $530. OKB’s first daily TBT Bullish Divergence since August, AAVE’s bearish setup at the TBO Fast line, and exhaustion signals on PI and KAS 4h charts further reinforce selective caution. CRV, BDX, DASH, and ZORA also display notable divergence patterns requiring attention.
Portfolio Strategy and Risk Management
With a market-wide pullback anticipated, active position management is critical. Current measures include trailing stops to lock in gains, partial profit-taking up to 50%, full exits to redeploy into stablecoins, and initiating small short positions on altcoins at the daily TBO Fast line with tight stop-losses to optimize risk/reward. Prospective new entries should await a confirmed retracement, using daily and weekly time frames alongside TBO Support levels to identify strong buying zones.
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