Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin closed below the daily TBO Cloud yesterday, maintaining a strong bearish mode after failing to reclaim initial bear-flag support near $64,000. This invalidation now establishes that level as resistance. A retest and rejection here today would likely trigger another downward thrust toward the $60,000–$62,000 zone.
Conversely, if BTC finds support at the lower parallel channel around $63,000, it would validate the second bear flag and potentially propel prices toward the optimistic $75,000 upside resistance. However, volume remains below its yellow moving average, on-balance volume (OBV) continues down, and daily RSI is neutral—albeit forming higher highs and lows, which offers a modest bullish undertone.
Ethereum Weekly RSI Reset and Correlation
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s bearish close beneath the daily TBO Cloud, preserving a strong bearish stance despite Wednesday’s uptick. On the weekly chart, ETH’s RSI is oversold and edging above 25, signaling a potential weekly RSI reset—a signal historically more reliable than its daily counterpart.
Traders should note the March–April 2025 parallel, when a similar RSI reset preceded further declines. If Bitcoin undergoes a final capitulation, Ethereum is likely to follow and possibly overreact to the downside.
Market Dominance and Total Cap Analysis
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) remains below its former support, confirming resistance and indicating that smaller coins may not outshine Bitcoin during bearish phases. OTHERS.D holds above the daily TBO Cloud in strong bullish mode but shows weakening via two bearish divergences and lower daily RSI highs.
Total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins (TOTALES) persists in strong bearish mode despite midweek gains. All indicators are negative except daily RSI, which is staging higher lows and highs. On the weekly timeframe, the market teeters near a final capitulation point.
Traditional Finance and Precious Metals
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) printed a third daily TBO Close Short, an extremely bullish reversal signal, with an upside target at 100.261. A stronger dollar may pressure U.S. equity futures. S&P 500 futures have returned into the daily TBO Cloud, indicating bearish consolidation, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) remains inside its cloud with building weekly bearish strength.
In precious metals, gold has seen reduced volatility yet holds above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the daily TBO Cloud. Silver remains above its 0.5 Fib level, while platinum trades above its daily TBO Cloud, eyeing resistance at $2,777.
Altcoin Highlights and Divergences
Among altcoins, HYPE closed above short-term overhead resistance, with OBV rising; a sustained three-day close above may target TBO resistance at 35.537. HBAR’s recent daily TBO Close Shorts have historically closed higher, suggesting a return to its fast line at 0.09894 rather than further gains.
DOT failed to breach historical TBO resistance despite solid volume, risking a bleed back to support if it cannot muster further upside. SKY continues to be rejected at daily TBO resistance, signaling waning strength. MYX’s late TBO breakdowns appear as exhaustion patterns, hinting at a possible bounce. MORPHO’s RSI at 81.5 with bullish volume and OBV warrants caution for a potential reversal.
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