Strengths
- The best-performing precious metal for the week was gold, up 0.45%, while the yield on the 2-year note fell 11.2 basis points (bps) for the week amid cooling geopolitical tensions. The Silver Institute’s 2026 World Silver Survey showed that global supply rose 7% and demand fell 2% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025. The increase in supply was driven mainly by a 3% YoY rise in mine production and a 2% YoY increase in recycling. Despite higher production, structural tightness persists, marked by the fifth consecutive year of market deficit and potential upside from growing solar demand amid higher hydrocarbon fuel costs.
- Ghana’s central bank said it plans to increase gold purchases from large-scale domestic producers to 30% of output from 20%, starting June 1. The Bank of Ghana, which currently buys 20% of refined gold from mining firms in cedis for its reserves, has finalized plans to raise that share to 30% of doré (unrefined) gold, according to Paul Bleboo, head of gold management at the regulator.
- China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) is exploring the launch of night trading, primarily for platinum and palladium contracts, in response to trader feedback, according to people familiar with the matter. The exchange is studying the feasibility of overnight sessions to better capture international price movements, according to Bloomberg.
Weaknesses
- The worst-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, down 0.58%, with silver down 0.49% and palladium off 0.26%. Uzbekistan, one of the world’s largest gold producers, resumed full-scale gold exports in April after a six-month pause. The country exported about US$1.5 billion of non-monetary gold in the first four months of the year, according to the National Statistics Committee, with most shipments occurring in April.
- Early in the week, gold fell as military strikes in the Persian Gulf reduced hopes for a U.S.–Iran peace deal and reinforced concerns that persistent inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer. U.S. and Iranian forces clashed near the Strait of Hormuz overnight, underscoring ongoing tensions even as both sides signaled progress toward an interim agreement, according to Bloomberg.
- Spot gold is approaching a potential daily close below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, with traders not expecting a quick rebound. Downward pressure is being driven in part by emerging market central banks drawing down reserves to defend currencies against a strong U.S. dollar. Indian authorities have also tightened gold import rules to support the rupee amid Middle East tensions, although reports of a potential 60-day cease-fire later in the week helped ease credit market stress and reduce pressure on gold.
Opportunities
- According to Scotia, in Nunavut for Agnico Eagle, current focus includes: (1) permitting mine life extension (2031–2036), including testing the waterline for saline water discharge; (2) progressing the mill expansion; and (3) exploration drilling to extend mine life. At Hope Bay, near-term priorities include: (1) site readiness for construction and planning for the 2026 sealift season; (2) workforce expansion; and (3) continued exploration drilling to extend mine life.
- With Q1/26 earnings season complete, share buybacks continue to stand out as a key use of strong free cash flow, with senior producers repurchasing US$3.1 billion to date versus US$5.1 billion in all of 2025. Canaccord notes that intermediate producers have also accelerated buybacks, repurchasing US$921 million year-to-date, already exceeding last year’s US$821 million.
- Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co. is seeking to raise as much as US$330 million in a U.S. initial public offering (IPO) to help restart a mine in Idaho that previously produced silver, antimony, and other minerals. The company is marketing 20 million shares at US$13.50 to US$16.50 to fund development, purchase mining equipment, and cover drilling costs at the Sunshine mine, according to its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Threats
- Gold Fields Ltd. must present its development plans to Ghana’s Minerals Commission to renew the leases for its Tarkwa mine, according to Reuters, citing regulator Chief Executive Officer Isaac Tandoh. Any decision on renewal will follow a ministerial-level presentation.
- Silver’s recent resilience contrasts with a downtrend in investor positioning, leaving the metal vulnerable to a pullback. The metal has been hovering around US$75 per ounce for several weeks, reflecting cautious optimism that prior speculative momentum could return if the U.S. reaches a peace deal with Iran, according to Bloomberg.
- As silver prices rose sharply, solar PV manufacturers faced significant margin pressure, prompting efforts to reduce silver usage in industrial applications. Lower demand could reduce the silver deficit by as much as 90% this year, with even modest investor selling potentially flipping the market into surplus. While a gold rally could push silver above $100 per ounce in the coming months, Bank of America does not expect silver to sustainably outperform due to weakening fundamental demand.
