Bitcoin has now confirmed its first TBO Breakdown since the breakdown cluster that began on January 31, when BTC started its most recent dump. The latest move removed nearly every short-term support level Aaron was tracking, leaving $60,000 as the last major level still standing. The four-hour chart adds important context: Thursday’s drop came with a major volume spike, including more than $1 billion in volume in one four-hour period, but Aaron noted that selling volume still has not reached the late-January and February capitulation zone.
Bitcoin loses short-term support as volume accelerates
BTC confirmed a daily TBO Breakdown while RSI made a lower low near 7.49 and volume rose to roughly 2.78 billion. The breakdown matters because it shifts the daily structure from warning mode into confirmation mode. At the same time, the market may not have reached final capitulation yet because four-hour volume remains below the prior panic-selling window. TBT Stop Loss Hunting Alerts have also been firing near-daily since Saturday, reinforcing the idea that forced moves and liquidity sweeps are active in the current environment.
Ethereum weakens further and undercuts the February low
Ethereum is showing deeper weakness than Bitcoin. ETH confirmed a second consecutive TBO Breakdown on Thursday and wicked down to $1,717, under the February 6 low of $1,747. With that prior low taken out, Aaron is watching $1,385 as the next downside target, followed by the likely bottom target of $1,073 from the bear-flag projection. Weekly RSI is also oversold for ETH, and if it remains below 25, Aaron’s framework keeps ETH in a strong bearish state.
Stablecoin dominance breakout raises pressure on crypto risk assets
Combined stablecoin dominance confirmed a TBO Breakout on Thursday’s close. Daily RSI is already overbought, but Aaron flagged the prior high near 91.63 as the key level: exceeding that level would suggest dominance has room to move substantially higher, which usually means lower prices for crypto. On the weekly chart, RSI is around 75 and climbing, supporting the view that stablecoin dominance can stay strong bullish. The next target near 13.039% is roughly one percentage point away.
ALT breadth deteriorates as market-cap charts break down
The broader ALT market is weakening quickly. OTHERS.D printed a massive bearish engulfing candle on Thursday, closed down 4.58%, and broke the “spaghetti support” zone. TOTALES also confirmed a daily TBO Breakdown, with RSI falling to 9.46 and exceeding the prior February 5 low of 9.72. TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 continued to drop, while OTHERS/BTC was rejected sharply, fell 5.54%, printed a bearish engulfing candle, and lost its overbought RSI streak. Aaron’s key warning is that if BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance rise together, ALTs can bleed massively.
TradFi holds stronger structure while warning divergences appear
Traditional markets are not breaking down the same way crypto is. DXY remains strong bullish, USDJPY is still holding above the daily TBO Resistance line, and S&P futures bounced after Wednesday’s minor pullback. SPX, NDX, and the Nikkei also remain structurally strong. However, warning signs continue to appear under the surface. FANG printed a daily TBT Bearish Divergence, copper is working on a second TBT Bearish Divergence, and KOSPI is also developing one on today’s candle.
SOL and major ALTs join the breakdown cluster
The damage across major ALTs is broad. XRP is moving toward its February 6 low after completing a TBO Breakdown cluster. SOL lost the February 6 low and printed a third consecutive TBO Breakdown. DOGE, LINK, LTC, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, UNI, DOT, PEPE, ETC, BONK, and others are either printing breakdowns, working on follow-through breakdowns, or losing important support. ADA is trading at levels not seen since 2020, while HYPE suffered a 13.57% close lower after Aaron previously warned about a pullback in the YouTube preview.
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