CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 4:35 p.m. EDT 11 June 2026 $4,234.950 (Basis the August 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 - $4,650
Initial Timeframe: 12 June 2026 to 24 June 2026
Stop Loss: NA
Gold prices have fallen approximately 12% in the nine trading days from an intraday high of $4,627.10 at the end of May to an intraday low of $4,046.00 today, before recovering to trade around $4,235.
The short term outlook for gold is for prices to continue the downward trend since 29 January, finding support at gold prices above $3,800, i.e. at levels never experienced prior to September, in the last nine months. CPM has projected a wide, volatile consolidation period from May through August, with the projection of a potential spike to $3,800 during this period of time. While CPM perhaps expected the low more likely in July or August, it could emerge sooner given the extent of investor liquidation over the past few weeks.
Our analyses suggest that gold could drop $400 from current levels to $3,800 over the next two weeks, and it could easily rise to around $4,650. While some of our analysts favor staying short on an ultra short term basis, riding the present trend, others feel the risk:reward between further declines or a rebound are about even, per the price range cited here. The majority view is to take profits and stand aside, at least for a couple of days.
On the downside, the Fed’s FOMC is meeting next week, and is likely to maintain current Fed Funds interest rates, or possibly raise them given the higher CPI and PPI data released 10 and 11 June. Also, the U.S. Iran war continues to threaten global economic activity.
On the upside, the war continues and inflationary pressures are increasing.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
