Precious metals risk/reward now positive as the Gold/SPX Ratio declines to target
Risk in gold, the miners and especially silver was nosebleed high back in January. So much so that I added puts on SLV (half expecting to get hammered) literally the day before the silver price imploded. Ah, luck. Gotta have it once in a while.
From the start of 2026, we (NFTRH and its clients) have been well aware of first the risk, and then the projected “multi-month” correction that tagged on to that risk. We have done the work to be positioned appropriately. But now, with the Semiconductor mania (I’ve released my final two positions, ASML and ALAB) in full swing, Semi (left) is gold (right) circa January, 2026.
The big explosion in the Semiconductor sector, the front end of our SOX > NDX > SPX internal market leadership chain, has come on cue with the expected rebound in the stock market (SPX) vs. the primary monetary asset of the new macro, gold.
“New macro” you say? I’ll never miss an opportunity to insert my favorite macro picture. So here it is again. The chart speaks to you on its own, so we can move on.
As part of the new macro, the SPX/Gold ratio is toast. Yet nothing goes straight up or down. SPX relative to gold was due for a rally, and boy has it rallied. There could yet be more upside to the red shaded zone on this monthly chart. But the spike in SPX/Gold has relieved a lot of pressure, and that is just fine for the precious metals risk/reward situation.
Indeed, a closer view of the above flipped over to its Gold/SPX (GLD/SPY) version tells this story, per an NFTRH+ subscriber update on Thursday:
Risk/Reward is distinctly back with the precious metals vs. the stock market. And that is on plan with the Gold/SPX (GLD/SPY) ratio, which is now testing our target at the shaded box.
Bottom Line
It paid handsomely to respect the poor precious metals risk/reward situation entering 2026. If all goes as expected, it will again pay handsomely to respect its positive risk/reward now. The opposite holds true for the stock market, which may or may not go overtly bearish in nominal terms. But it is expected to resume its bearish state relative to gold after this counter-trend rally finishes up.
Not wanting to be miserly, on Thursday I added a quality gold miner, a quality silver stock and a quality royalty. When quality gets knocked down so hard, an investor should be aware of the old saying that is all-too obvious, but still sometimes all too difficult to put into practice: “sell high, buy low.”
We did that first thing, and with the precious metals risk/reward picture back in line, I don’t want to get caught forgetting the second thing. I have a list of the highest quality precious metals miners, royalties and explorers at the ready, which has been and will continue to be highlighted in NFTRH.
Finally, while I think a bounce or rally is likely soon, the precious metals correction may not yet be over. But risk/reward does not care about that. It is a whole different thing, and it is now positive.
